QUESTION FROM A LETTER TO NEWTON

In 1693, Samuel Pepys wrote Isaac Newton a letter asking for help solving a probability problem:

Which is most probable?

A. Six fair dice are tossed independently and at least one “6” appears.
B. Twelve fair dice are tossed independently and at least two “6”s appear.
C. Eighteen fair dice are tossed independently and at least three “6”s appear.

Standing on the shoulders of giants, it is not as hard today as it was in the 17th century, but take a shot at solving it.

Watch the next post of Decision Science News for the answer and reference to a paper that addresses it.

DYNAMIC DECISION MAKING LABORATORY

The Dynamic Decision Making Laboratory (DDMLab) (www.cmu.edu/ddmlab) in the department of Social and Decision Sciences at Carnegie Mellon University (CMU) invites applications for two Postdoctoral fellowship positions in cognitive psychology and decision making.

Research projects require experience planning and conducting laboratory studies with complex, dynamic simulations. The DDMLab offers training and research opportunities involving several aspects of dynamic decision making: learning and transfer, cognitive support and cognitive modeling among others. Fellows will be involved in one of two types of projects. One is a research project sponsored by the National Science Foundation on Hypothesis Generation and Feedback in the context of medical diagnosis. Another one is a research project sponsored by the Office of Naval Research on Automaticity development in complex tasks. The ideal candidates will have a Ph.D. in Psychology, Cognitive Science, Decision Science or Human Factors.

They expect candidates to have strong research interests in all facets of dynamic decision making research: conducting cognitive task analysis of real world situations, helping in the design of computer simulations that mimic the real world, conducting laboratory studies using these simulations, analyzing data and writing research reports. Appointment will pay highly competitive rates based on background and experience. The position is scheduled to start immediately and extend for one or up to two years. Applicants should send curriculum vitae, statement of research skills and interests, relevant journal articles, and contact information for three references. Electronic applications are encouraged. Please send electronic documents (Word, Pdf) to: coty_at_cmu.edu or forward paper documents to:

Dr. Cleotilde Gonzalez
Dynamic Decision Making Laboratory
Social and Decision Sciences Department
Carnegie Mellon University
5000 Forbes Ave – Porter Hall
Pittsburgh, PA 15213

Carnegie Mellon is an equal opportunity/affirmative action employer. For more information on their Equal Employment/Affirmative Action Policy and our Statement of Assurance, go to: http://www.cmu.edu/policies/documents/SoA.html

TRANSFORMATIVE CONSUMER RESEARCH

The Association for Consumer Research, in conjunction with the Tuck School of Business at Dartmouth College and the Marketing Science Institute, are sponsoring a conference next July 6 – 8 (2007) entitled Transformative Consumer Research: Inspiring Scholarship for Collective and Personal Well-Being.

Its goals are (1) to motivate increased consumer research that begins with, and directly addresses, an important challenge, problem, or opportunity in consumer behavior that has an essential role in the well-being of people and other living beings and (2) to guide consumer researchers in designing, conducting, and communicating their scholarship to maximize the likelihood that consumers, their representatives, and/or other individuals charged with overseeing human and ecological welfare can learn about and act upon the insights. There is no registration fee, all food and refreshments are provided, and up to 60 attendees (those presenting papers) will receive free accommodations on the Dartmouth campus. The deadline for applications and submissions is January 31, 2007. For more details, please visit the following website:

http://mba.tuck.dartmouth.edu/pages/faculty/punam.keller/conference/

Photo credit: www.flickr.com/photos/ericlandry/118399835/

SUMMER INSTITUTE IN INFORMED PATIENT CHOICE

Patients make decisions about a matter that is very important to them, their health. New findings on the representation of information can improve decision making, and new tools, such as the Distribution Builder, put these findings to work. It is a bright new era of informed patient choice.This coming summer, try to catch Dartmouth’s summer institute on the topic from June 25th to July 6th, 2007.More information here: http://www.dartmouth.edu/~cecs/siipc/An all-star cast of the decision science crowd includes:Roy Baumeister
Gerd Gigerenzer
Mary Frances Luce
Craig McKenzie
Valerie Reyna
Kathleen Vohs
Timothy D. Wilson
George L. Wolford II
J. Frank Yates

TENURE-TRACK POSITIONS AT THE SCHOOL OF PUBLIC HEALTH, UNC-CHAPEL HILL

POSITIONS: The Department of Health Behavior and Health Education in the School of Public Health at the University of North Carolina at Chapel Hill is seeking applications for up to three Tenure-Track positions beginning winter/summer 2007. Appointment may be made at the Assistant, Associate or Full Professor level depending upon experience and research and scholarly accomplishments.

DEPARTMENT OVERVIEW: In approaching prevention and disease management in diverse populations and through diverse community settings in the US and internationally, faculty of the Department have identified three areas of particular emphasis: (1) Health Communication, (2) Interpersonal and Social Processes in Health and Disease, and (3) Community Engagement. A range of quantitative and qualitative research methods cut across these, including controlled evaluations of interventions, community-based participatory approaches, and multi-level analysis and modeling. Training programs lead to M.P.H. and Ph.D. degrees and prepare students for careers in public health research, teaching, administration, and practice. Across all of these, the Department is committed to research and practice that advances social justice and especially seeks candidates who will add to the diversity of its faculty.

RESPONSIBILITIES: The Department seeks faculty members who will contribute to its overall research, teaching and service programs. Given its emphasis areas of Health Communication, Interpersonal and Social Processes, and Community Engagement, a cover letter accompanying applications should describe the pertinence of the applicant’s work to one or several of these three areas and, possibly, synergies among them. Along with those whose research addresses thematic or topical aspects of these areas, individuals whose research emphasizes methodological contributions to them are also encouraged to apply. Specific responsibilities will include funded research, teaching graduate level courses, advising graduate students, and participating in the Department’s service programs.

QUALIFICATIONS: An earned doctorate in behavioral or social sciences or other disciplines pertinent to health behavior and health education. Candidates should demonstrate the ability to establish and collaborate in multidisciplinary, funded research programs, as well as a clear track record of scholarly accomplishment. They should also have expertise in working with graduate students as well as a commitment to graduate-level teaching.

DATES: Applications will be reviewed until the position is filled.

TO APPLY, send curriculum vita and cover letter summarizing qualifications to: Edwin Fisher, Ph.D., Chair Department of Health Behavior and Health Education School of Public Health, University of North Carolina at Chapel Hill Rosenau Hall, CB#7440 Chapel Hill, NC 27599-7440 E-mail: searchhlthbeh@email.unc.edu

SJDM 27TH ANNUAL CONFERENCE NOV 17-20, 2006 HOUSTON

It’s on. The 27th (can you believe it?), JDM conference program starts Saturday morning. As usual, Decision Science News will be in attendance, covering both the judgment and the decision-making action.

CONFERENCE TOOLS

• Program – print pages 2 to 6 to get your bearings once you land
• Hilton Americas – the conference hotel is located at 1600 Lamar, Houston, TX. Tel: +1-713-739-8000
• Driving directions – from IAH airport to the hotel
• Driving directions – from HOU airport to the hotel

Ecologically-rational types will be interested to attend the Brunswik Society meeting Thursday and Friday.