SOCIETY FOR JUDGMENT AND DECISION MAKING NEWSLETTER The quarterly Society for Judgment and Decision Making newsletter can be downloaded from the SJDM site: http://sjdm.org/newsletters/ Dan Goldstein SJDM Newsletter Editor
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LET’S PUT THAT INTO PERSPECTIVE The NYT had a nice infographic entitled “The typical American lives only 18 miles from mom“. They’re saying the median distance to mom is 18 miles. But when you look at the data in greater depth (thanks to the graph in the article, which we reproduce above), it looks like […]
A while back, Decision Science News put out a call to the Society for Judgment and Decision Making email list looking for “tools, methods to improve decision making, outcomes, and information communication”. Here are the results of that call.
JUST ABOUT EVERYONE GOT IT WRONG, SOME CLASSES OF PREDICTIONS WERE LESS WRONG We know Decision Science News isn’t your main news source and assume you know that Donald Trump surprised many and won the election last night. Models like the Princeton Election Consortium, which put Clinton’s probability of winning at 99%, probably need re-examining. […]
A distribution builder is a tool to elicit probability distributions from people. Now you can make your own.
In light of considerable evidence that there is no meaningful effect of power posing, Dana Carney a co-author of the original article has come forth stating that she no longer believes in the effect.
If you know R, you could building simple, accurate decision rules today with this sweet new package.
It just got a lot easier to simulate the performance of simple heuristics.
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We’ve legally bet 1,600 bucks that Clinton will win. Here’s how.
