Belief in the hot hand in sports is the belief that someone who makes a shot has an increased probability of making the next shot, and that someone who misses a shot has a decreased probability of making the next shot.
Filed in
Books
Subscribe to Decision Science News by Email (one email per week, easy unsubscribe)
INTELLIGENCE IN THE WORLD Ecological Rationality: Intelligence in the World is a new book by Peter Todd, Gerd Gigerenzer and the ABC Research Group (including your Decision Science News editor). It is much of the same team who brought you Simple Heuristics That Make Us Smart, with a number of new voices in the mix. […]
Filed in
BooksSubscribe to Decision Science News by Email (one email per week, easy unsubscribe)
So. It has come to this in the words of XKCD. Behavioral Economics for Dummies.
Gigerenzer, G., Hertwig, R., & Pachur, T. (Eds.). (2011). Heuristics: The Foundations of Adaptive Behavior. New York: Oxford University Press.
Filed in
Books ,
IdeasSubscribe to Decision Science News by Email (one email per week, easy unsubscribe)
ONE IN TWENTY P = .05 RESULTS IS A FALSE ALARM ON AVERAGE If you’re not familiar with xkcd and you are a reader of Decision Science News, that’s a source of dissonance in the universe that merits dissolving. Enjoy today’s post (above), and if you are like us, you might want to make the […]
Society for Judgment and Decision Making Newsletter Editor Dan Goldstein reports that the final SJDM newsletter of 2010 is ready for download.
GELMAN’S FIVE BOOK RECOMMENDATIONS There’s a nice article in The Browser in which Statistician and Political Scientist Extraordinaire Andrew Gelman recommends five books. It is definitely worth a read. We learned something about baseball from it and have decided to buy a book on child rearing based on its recommendations. [We already knew the stuff […]
December saw the passing on Robyn Dawes, without question a scholar who helped define the field of Judgment and Decision Making. The author of the field’s pre-eminent course text “Rational Choice in an Uncertain World”, Dawes was no doubt responsible for getting and keeping many students interested in the field. Dawes was an excellent writer. In addition to authoring what we think is the best-titled paper in the history of JDM “The Robust Beauty of Improper Linear Models in Decision Making”, his books were some of the few we read without skipping a word from start to finish. Dawes is unique: a mathematical clinical psychologist (some say the only one), a past-president of the JDM Society, a fellow of American Academy of Arts and Sciences, an academic with no fear of controversy, and much more.
TALEB INTERVIEWS FROM BEFORE AND AFTER THE DOWNTURN Making predictions is risky business. If you make a claim like “Dow 30,000 by 2008“, it’s more than a little embarrassing when you’re wrong. (If you’re wondering, the Dow’s peak was just over 14,000). But making predictions is important. Science, for instance, suffers when theories are vague […]
Filed in
BooksSubscribe to Decision Science News by Email (one email per week, easy unsubscribe)
THE OXFORD HANDBOOK OF ANALYTICAL SOCIOLOGY With millions of people connecting in online social networks, researchers across academia are racing to make sense of the terabytes of new social data being generated daily. Some folks, like Duncan Watts, have been thinking about social networks for a long time, even before the online variants went viral. […]
