EXTREME AND HIGH IMPACT UNCERTAINTY Nassim Taleb’s new book The Black Swan is out now. Early reviews are in: David Shaywitz in the Wall Street Journal Niall Ferguson in the Sunday Telegraph & The LA Times Roger Lowenstein in Portfolio.com Gregg Easterbrook in The New York Times Taleb’s reply to Easterbrook The first chapter free […]
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ANNUAL MEETING OF THE SOCIETY FOR JUDGMENT AND DECISION MAKING The Society for Judgment and Decision Making (SJDM) invites abstracts for symposia, oral presentations, and posters on any interesting topic related to judgment and decision making. Completed manuscripts are not required. LOCATION, DATES, AND PROGRAM SJDM’s annual conference will be held at the Westin Hotel […]
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WHEN DOES DISEASE SCREENING HELP? The judgment and decision making crowd is buzzing about the idea that screening for certain diseases (such as breast or lung cancer) can be ineffective or even harmful. Some of the readings dans le vent: Peter B. Bach; James R. Jett; Ugo Pastorino; Melvyn S. Tockman; Stephen J. Swensen; Colin […]
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COMMON MISUNDERSTANDINGS OF A COMMON MEASURE Dan Goldstein and Nassim Taleb have written a paper called “We don’t quite know what we are talking about when we talk about volatility” which looks at what finance professionals and students do when asked for estimates of standard deviation.In particular, they posed this question: A stock (or a […]
