COUNTERINTUITIVE PROBLEM, INTUITIVE REPRESENTATION Blog posts about counterintuitive probability problems generate lots of opinions with a high probability. Andrew Gelman and readers have been having a lot of fun with the following probability problem: I have two children. One is a boy born on a Tuesday. What is the probability I have two boys? The […]
IMAGINING THE FUTURE TO HELP PREPARE FOR IT The New York Times just ran a piece called Some Novel Ideas for Improving Retirement Income about having people read Victorian novels in order to increase their retirement savings rates. Actually, that is not true. But it did feature some newer ideas from Psychology and Behavioral Finance […]
SJDM’s 31st annual conference will be held in the Drury Plaza Hotel, St. Louis, Missouri, during November 19-22, 2010. Early registration and welcome reception will take place the evening of Friday, November 19.
In baseball, what are the chances the winner will win again against the same opponent the very next day?