Dance with chance
MAKING LUCK WORK FOR YOU
Decision Science News was just at the ESMT Annual Forum in Berlin where we spoke in a session with Martin Weber, Gerd Gigerenzer, Stephan Meier, Luc Wathieu and Robin Hogarth and suddenly remembered that Hogarth, along with INSEAD’s Spyros Makridakis and Anil Gaba, has a new book out called Dance with Chance: Making Luck Work for You
The book’s Web site has a number of excerpts for free download:
- Preface (pdf)
- The illusion of control from Chapter 1: Three Wishes from a Genie
- Some national puzzles from Chapter 2: The Ills of Pills
- Mind over medicine from Chapter 3: Getting the Right Medicine
- The power of luck from Chapter 5: Watering Your Money Plant
- Mediocrity and failure from Chapter 6: Lessons from Gurus
- The creative destruction of copper from Chapter 7: Creative Destruction
- Take a chance on me from Chapter 8: Does God Play Dice?
- The statistician who ate humble pie from Chapter 9: Past or Future
- A black Monday and a black swan from Chapter 10: Of Subways and Coconuts – Two Types of Uncertainty
- Blinking marvelous from Chapter 11: Genius or Fallible?
- Predicting marital happiness from Chapter 12: The Inevitability of Decisions
- Increasing the sum of human happiness from Chapter 13: Happiness, Happiness, Happiness
Also fun is this video of the authors chatting with Nassim Taleb. Anil Gaba makes a point in the video which, coincidentally, was Decision Science News’ thesis in our ESMT Annual Forum talk on navigating turbulent times.
“I think one thing that is very, very key is to remove this unwarranted respect for sophisticated models where you get taken in by the technical wizardry and you forget the assumptions”
