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August 1, 2007

Gut feelings

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GIGERENZER INTERVIEWED IN SALON.COM

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Leading Judgment and Decision-Making scholar Gerd Gigerenzer was interviewed in Salon.com this week about his new book Gut Feelings: The Intelligence of the Unconscious in a piece amusingly titled “Should National Security Depend on Michael Chertoff’s Gut?”

The interview, which covers September 11th, fly balls, high school dropouts, illegal drugs, and the prostate, makes for attractive summer reading.

July 25, 2007

Have a ball in Bale (Suisse)

Filed in Jobs ,SJDM
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DECISION SCIENCE POSTDOC IN BASEL SWITZERLAND

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Decision Science News has been to visit the Center for Cognitive and Decision Sciences in Basel and can vouch for it as a center of excellence.

Applications are invited for a postdoctoral research scientist at the Center for Cognitive and Decision Sciences at the Psychology Department of the University of Basel, Switzerland.

The ideal candidate will have completed his/her graduate work in the autumn or by the end of 2007 and will have interest in one or two of the following research areas: behavioral decision making, models of bounded rationality, or risk. Experience in computer modeling is desirable. Applicants may be of any nationality, and the required teaching may be conducted in German or English. The Center for Cognitive and Decision Sciences at the University of Basel is directed by Ralph Hertwig. Please visit our website for more information: http://www.psycho.unibas.ch/cds

The position is available for two to six years at an annual starting salary of 91,664.30 Swiss Francs, with the earliest starting date of October 2007.

To apply, please send a CV, two letters of recommendation, reprints of published papers, and a cover letter describing your research interests and skills. Review of applications will start September 15 and continue until the position is filled.

Electronic applications should be submitted to: Laura Wiles at the Center for Cognitive and Decision Sciences. E-mail: Laura.Wiles at unibas.ch

If you wish to find out more about this opportunity, you may also contact Ralph Hertwig by phone at (+41 61) 267 06 11 or by e-mail at ralph.hertwig at unibas.ch

Decision Science News opts not to put circonflexes in post titles because they mess with RSS feed readers. Photo credit: http://www.flickr.com/photos/ffgoatee/296439978/

July 17, 2007

Waxing on disaster

Filed in Conferences ,SJDM ,SJDM-Conferences
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DISASTERS: RECIPES AND REMEDIES

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A Social Research Conference at The New School for Social Research
November 1 and 2, 2007 www.newschool.edu/disasters

This conference is convened at a time at which we are seriously threatened by an increasing number of disasters of all kinds: those conventionally considered “natural,” like hurricanes and tsunamis, and those normally considered man-made, like pandemics and large-scale bioterrorist attacks. This increasing threat is not only due to urbanization, globalization, coastal development, inadequate infrastructure design, and international hostilities, among other things, but is also a consequence of global warming.

The need for serious reflection on how we can best think about, prepare for, respond to and prevent disasters is urgent. At this conference, leading experts will explore the commonalities of all disasters. They will examine the unequal protection and treatment of populations made vulnerable by their location and or socioeconomic status; the impact of disasters on the economy and overall human development; how hazards develop into disasters; and how design factors either mitigate or amplify their effects.

The two-day conference is organized into 5 sessions:
I. Definitions: What We Talk about When We Talk about Disasters
II. Acquiring Vulnerabilities that Potentiate Disasters
III. Keynote by Nicholas Scoppetta, NYC Fire Commissioner
IV. What “Really” Happens: Preparations and Responses
V. The Impact of Disasters on Human Development

TICKETS
Regular full conference: $50; Regular single session: $12; ACLU members: $35; New School alumni: $15; Other full-time students: $15; Full-time New School students: Free

LOCATION
John L. Tishman Auditorium, The New School, 66 West 12th Street, NYC (between 5th and 6th Ave)

CONTACT
Social Research Conferences, The New School, 65 Fifth Avenue, Room 375, New York, NY 10003, t: 212.229.5776 x3121, f: 212.229.5476, socres@newschool.edu, www.newschool.edu/disasters

Photo Credit: http://www.flickr.com/photos/37996586683@N01/42148248/

July 11, 2007

Ask not what your school of government can do for you

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PROFESSORSHIPS AT HARVARD’S KENNEDY SCHOOL

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The Kennedy School of Government seeks to appoint exceptional scholars to tenure-track positions at the nexus of psychology, public policy and public leadership We especially seek individuals with research interests related to public policy and public leadership from the fields of social psychology, organizational behavior, personality psychology, behavioral decision research, sociology, and/or combinations thereof.

The Kennedy School has growing programs in judgment and decision making, broadly defined, with strength in such topics as emotional influences, negotiations, risk perception, resource allocation, trust, and group perception. For example, the Kennedy School has recently approved a field of interdisciplinary doctoral study in judgment and decision making, which draws primarily on faculty strengths in behavioral economics, organizational behavior, and psychology. The Kennedy School also has a new, state-of-the-art laboratory dedicated to supporting research in these areas. It includes, among other features, capability to collect biological measures as well as behavioral and cognitive measures.

Research and teaching excellence are the highest priorities for the position. Also important is enthusiasm for working in an environment that emphasizes the marriage of discipline-based scholarship and applied, public-policy scholarship. Applicants for the position should also be committed to teaching professionally oriented students, including middle-level and senior executives, in ways that will help them perform well in professional roles.

Interested candidates should mail their applications to Professor Jennifer S. Lerner, Faculty Search Committee, Kennedy School of Government, 79 JFK Street, Cambridge, MA 02138 no later than November 1. Review of applicants will begin as soon as they are received, and early applications are encouraged. Applications should include a current curriculum vita, representative publications, and the names of those who can provide references. Qualified women and members of minority groups are encouraged to apply. Harvard University is an Affirmative Action/Equal opportunity employer.

July 4, 2007

Another open-access journal to look out for

Filed in Research News ,SJDM
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JOURNAL OF CHOICE MODELLING

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Open-access journals all officially the rage. Here’s another newbie, possibly of interest to you, the Decision Science News reader.

We are pleased to announce the launch of the “Journal of Choice Modelling”, a new open access peer reviewed journal dedicated to the field of choice modelling.

The journal publishes theoretical and applied papers in the field of choice modelling. It is not limited to one area of study, such as transport or marketing, but invites contributions from across a range of disciplines where the analysis of choice behaviour is a subject of interest. The journal also seeks to be non-specific in terms of the topics covered, with papers dealing with methodology, data, survey and experimental design all being of equal interest. Similarly, we welcome papers discussing the use of advanced choice modelling techniques in actual real world applications.

The Journal of Choice Modelling is an open access journal. Papers published in the journal can be freely accessed by anyone with an internet connection. This greatly increases visibility, and allows access by academics, practitioners and the general public, without the need for registering or paying access fees. The Journal of Choice Modelling is a web-based journal, with no paper version. This not only greatly reduces costs, but also significantly improves turnaround times.

We are now inviting contributions for the inaugural issues of the Journal of Choice Modelling. We welcome papers discussing any topic related to the study of choice behaviour.”

For detailed information on the journal including a listing of current members of the editorial board and submission guidelines, see: http://www.jocm.org.uk

Recommended reading:

Discrete Choice Methods with Simulation
Stated Choice Methods: Analysis and Applications
Applied Choice Analysis: A Primer

June 27, 2007

Jobs at UCSD

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UNIVERSITY OF CALIFORNIA, SAN DIEGO, HIRING MARKETING PROFESSORS

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UCSD’s business school is small but growing fast, and is already home to decision researchers such as On Amir, David Schkade, Uri Gneezy, Craig McKenzie. The Marketing area is hiring. Since Marketing is JDM with teeth, Decision Science News readers may be interested:

The Rady School of Management (http://rady.ucsd.edu/) at the University of California, San Diego (UCSD) invites applications for assistant, associate and full professor positions in marketing. Preference will be given to experienced applicants who have distinguished scholarly records, have demonstrated teaching expertise with graduate students and executives, and are good institution builders. All applicants must have a Ph.D. or will be working towards a Ph.D. by the start date of the new academic year. Associate-level candidates must show evidence of a strong research record in their specialization, while candidates for senior rank must demonstrate a continuing publication record in leading journals. Salary and appointment level are dependent on experience and based on University of California pay scales. The positions are expected to have a start date of July 1, 2008. A detailed vita (PDF or Word document form) will be accepted only by email to radymarketing at ucsd.edu. Please indicate reference job code ACRMKTG on the subject line and state the level of position you are applying for in the cover letter. Review will begin October 1, 2007 and will continue until positions are filled. UCSD is an Affirmative Action/Equal Opportunity Employer with a strong institutional commitment to the achievement of excellence through diversity among its faculty and staff.

For information contact:
Monique M. Tanjuaquio, Academic Personnel Coordinator, radymarketing at ucsd.edu

June 20, 2007

Beyond shifting eyes and shifting posture

Filed in Research News
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A BETTER WAY TO DECIDE ABOUT LYING

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Aldert Vrij and other researchers at the University of Portsmouth have found that often-recommended lie detection methods, such as looking for verbal or visual cues of deception, aren’t terribly effective. A promising approach may be to ask interviewees to answer in a more cognitively-demanding fashion, such as recounting what happened in reverse temporal order. Simply put, to test if a story is true, ask the person to tell it backwards. The idea is that juggling the facts paired with mental aerobics is so difficult that it leads to the dropping of balls.

Thanks to our friends at The Telegraph for the tip.

Reference:
Vrij, A., Mann, S., Kristen, S., & Fisher, R. P. (in press). Cues to deception and ability to detect lies as a function of police interview styles. Law and Human Behavior.

Photo credit: http://www.flickr.com/photo_zoom.gne?id=428368071&size=m

June 13, 2007

Should you test for statistical significance?

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ARGUMENTS AGAINST ALL SIGNIFICANCE TESTS

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This week, the always-provocative J. Scott Armstrong submits this comment to Decision Science News:

“About two years ago, I was a reasonable person who argued that tests of statistical significance were useful in some limited situations. After completing research for “Significance tests harm progress in forecasting” in the International Journal of Forecasting, 23 (2007), 321-327, I have concluded that tests of statistical significance should never be used. Here is the abstract:

I briefly summarize prior research showing that tests of statistical significance are improperly used even in leading scholarly journals. Attempts to educate researchers to avoid pitfalls have had little success. Even when done properly, however, statistical significance tests are of no value. Other researchers have discussed reasons for these failures. I was unable to find empirical evidence to support the use of significance tests under any conditions. I then show that tests of statistical significance are harmful to the development of scientific knowledge because they distract the researcher from the use of proper methods. I illustrate the dangers of significance tests by examining a re-analysis of the M3-Competition. Although the authors of the re-analysis conducted a proper series of statistical tests, they suggested that the original M3-Competition was not justified in concluding that combined forecasts reduce errors, and that the selection of the best method is dependent on the selection of a proper error measure; however, I show that the original conclusions were correct. Authors should avoid tests of statistical significance; instead, they should report on effect sizes, confidence intervals, replications/extensions, and meta-analyses. Practitioners should ignore significance tests and journals should discourage them. http://dx.doi.org/10.1016/j.ijforecast.2007.03.004

The paper is followed by commentaries by Keith Ord, Herman Stekler, and Paul Goodwin, and by my reply “Statistical significance tests are unnecessary even when properly done and properly interpreted: Reply to commentaries” , which can be found online at http://dx.doi.org/10.1016/j.ijforecast.2007.01.010

This is happy news for practitioners, researchers, and students. On the other hand, it might create anguish among faculty who teach people about statistical significance.”

June 7, 2007

2007 AMA interviews: The Marketing-Professor job market is here

Filed in Gossip ,Jobs
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EVERYTHING YOU EVER WANTED TO KNOW ABOUT THE AMA INTERVIEWS FOR THE ACADEMIC MARKETING JOB MARKET

Today at DSN we re-publish a piece Dan Goldstein first published here in 2005.

WHY AM I WRITING THIS?
I’ve seen the Marketing job market turn happy grad students into quivering masses of fear. I want to share my experiences and provide a bit advice to make the whole process less mysterious.

WHAT DO I KNOW?
I’ve been on the AMA job market twice and the Psychology market once. As a professor I’ve conducted 20 AMA interviews and contributed to hiring decisions. I’ve had about 40 AMA interviews, as well as numerous campus visits, face-to-face interviews, offers, and rejections. I’m an outsider to Marketing who went on the market older and with more experience than the average rookie (35 years of age, with 8 years of research scientist, postdoc, visiting scholar, and industry positions). I’ve hired many people for many academic posts, so I know both sides.

HOW TO GET INTO THE AMA JOB MARKET
First, at least a couple months before the conference, find where it will be. It’s called the Summer Educator’s Conference. Strange name, I know. Get yourself a room in the conference hotel, preferably on the floor where the express elevator meets the local elevator for the upper floors. You’ll be hanging out on this floor waiting to change elevators anyway, so you might as well start there.

Next, get your advisor / sponsor to write a cover letter encouraging people to meet with you at AMA. It helps if this person is in Marketing. Get 1 or 2 other letters of recommendation, a CV, and some choice pubs. Put them in an envelope and mail them out to a friend of your sponsor at the desired school. It should look like the letter is coming from your sponsor, even though you are doing the actual assembly and mailing. Repeat this process a bunch of times. It’s a good idea to hit a school with 2 packets, 3 if you suspect they’re a little disorganized. Certainly send one to the recruiting coordinator (they may send letters to your department’s secretary telling you they are hiring) and one to your sponsor’s friend. Mail to schools regardless of whether they are advertising a position or not. This is academia: nobody knows anything. This means you may be sending 50 or more packets. You want to have them mailed by the 4th of July at the absolute latest.

THEN WHAT?
Wait to get calls or emails from schools wishing to set up AMA interviews with you. These calls may come in as late as one week before the conference. Some schools will not invite you for totally unknown reasons. You may get interviews from the top 10 schools and rejected from the 30th-ranked one. Don’t sweat it. Again, this is a land of total and absolute unpredictability that you’re entering into. Also, know that just because you get an interview doesn’t mean they have a job. Sometimes schools don’t know until the last minute if they’ll have funding for a post. Still, you’ll want to meet with them anyway. After the AMA, you’ll hopefully get “fly-outs,” that is, offers to come and visit the campus and give a talk. This means you’ve made the top five or so. Most offers go down in December. There’s a second market that happens after all the schools realize they’ve made offers to the same person. Of course, some schools get wise to this and don’t make offers to amazing people who would have come. We need some kind of market mechanism to work out this part of the system.

THE “IT’S ALL ABOUT FRIENDSHIP” RULE
Keep in mind that you will leave this process with 1 or 0 jobs. Therefore, when talking to a person, the most likely thing is that they will not be your colleague in the future. Therefore, think of each opportunity as a chance to make a friend. You’ll need friends to collaborate, to get tenure, get grants, and to go on the market again if you’re not happy with what you get.

HOW DO YOU FIND OUT IN WHICH ROOM TO INTERVIEW?
The schools will leave messages for you telling you in which rooms your interviews will be. You’ll get calls, emails, and notes held for you at the hotel reception. Some schools will fail to get in touch with you so you have to try to find them. Many profs ask the hotel to make their room number public, but even so the hotel may not comply. Try to take care of this early on the first day.

HOW DO THE ACTUAL AMA INTERVIEWS GO?
At the pre-arranged time you will knock on their hotel room door. You will be let into a suite (p=.4) or a normal hotel room (p=.5, but see below). In the latter case, there will be people you once imagined as dignified sitting on beds. The other people in the room may not look at you when you walk in because they will be looking for a precious few seconds at your CV. For at least some people in the room, this may be the first time they have concentrated on your CV. Yikes is right. Put the important stuff early in your CV so nobody can miss it.

THE SEAT OF HONOR
There will be an armchair. Someone will motion towards the armchair, smile, and say, “You get the seat of honor!” This will happen at every school, at every interview, for three days. I promise.

THE TIME COURSE
There will be two minutes of pleasant chit-chat. They will propose that you talk first and they talk next. There will be a little table next to the chair on which you will put your flip book of slides. You will present for 30 minutes, taking their questions as they come. They will be very nice. When done, they will ask you if you have anything to ask them. You of course do not. You hate this question. You make something up. Don’t worry, they too have a spiel, and all you need to do is find a way to get them started on it. By the time they are done, it’s time for you to leave. The whole experience will feel like it went rather well.

PREDICTING IF YOU WILL GET A FLY-OUT
It’s impossible to tell from how it seems to have gone whether they will give you a fly-out or not. Again, this is the land of staggering and high-impact uncertainty. They might not invite you because you were too bad (and they don’t want you), or because you were too good (and they think they don’t stand a chance of getting you).

DO INTERVIEWS DEVIATE FROM THAT MODEL?
Yes.

Sometimes instead of a hotel room, they will have a private meeting room (p=.075). Sometimes they will have a private meeting room with fruit, coffee, and bottled water (p=.025). Sometimes, they will fall asleep while you are speaking (p=.05). Sometimes they will be rude to you (p=.025). Sometimes a key person will miss an early interview due to a hangover (p=.025). Sometimes, if it’s the end of the day, they will drink alcohol with you (p=.18, given that it’s the end of the day).

HOW YOU THINK THE PROCESS WORKS
The committee has read your CV and cover letter and looked at your pubs. They know your topic and can instantly appreciate that what you are doing is important. They know the value of each journal you have published in and each prize you’ve won. They know your advisor and the strengths she or he instills into each student. They ignore what they’re supposed to ignore and assume everything they’re supposed to assume. They’ll discount the interview and fly you out based on your record.

HOW THE PROCESS REALLY WORKS
The interviewers will have looked at your CV for about one minute a couple months ago, and for a few seconds as you walked in the room. They will never have read your entire cover letter, and they will have forgotten most of what they did read. They could care less about your advisor and will get offended that you didn’t cite their advisor. They’ll pay attention to everything they’re supposed to ignore and assume nothing except what you repeat five times. Flouting 50 years of research in judgment and decision-making, they’ll discount your CV and fly you out based on your interview.

TWO WAYS TO GIVE YOUR SPIEL
1) The plow. You start and the first slide and go through them until the last slide. Stop when interrupted and get back on track.

2) The volley. Keep the slides closed and just talk with the people about your topic. Get them to converse with you, to ask you questions, to ask for clarifications. When you need to show them something, open up the presentation and show them just that slide.

I did the plow the first year and the volley the second year. I got four times more fly-outs the second year. Econometricians are now trying to determine if there was causality.

HOW TO ACT
Make no mistake, you are an actor auditioning for a part. You have to bring the energy into the room with you. There will be none awaiting your arrival, I promise you. These people are tired. They’ve been listening to people in a stuffy hotel room from dawn till dusk for days. If you do an average job, you lose: You have to be two standard deviations above the mean to get a fly-out. So audition for the part, and make yourself stand out. If you want to learn how actors audition, read Audition by Michael Shurtleff.

SOCIAL SKILLS MATTER
From the candidate’s point of view, everything is about the CV and the correctness of the proofs in the manuscript. However, for better or for worse, extra-academic qualities matter. Here are two examples. 1) The Social Lubricant factor. Departments get visitors all the time: guest speakers, visiting professors, job candidates, etc. Some departments are a bunch of folks who stare at their shoes when introduced to a new person. These departments have a real problem: they have nobody on board who can make visitors feel at ease, and sooner or later word starts to spread about how socially awkward the people at University X are. To fix such problems, departments sometimes hire socially-skilled types who know how to make people comfortable in conversation, and who know how to ask good questions during talks. Also, interviewers assume (probably incorrectly) that people who can talk a good game will be star teachers. 2) The Soft Sell factor. Many people succeed in academia not because they are often right, but also because they are masters of making other people feel like they aren’t wrong. Defensiveness or determination to embarrass when responding to critique is a sure way to blow an interview.

HAVE A QUIRK
One of the biggest risks facing you is that you will be forgotten. Make sure the interviewers know something unusual about you. My quirk is that I worked internationally as a theater director for over 10 years. It’s got nothing to do my research, but I can’t tell you the number of people who bring up this odd little fact when I do campus visits.

DON’T GIVE UP
Never think it’s hopeless. Just because you’re not two SDs above the mean at the school of your dreams, doesn’t mean you’re not the dream candidate of another perfectly good school. The students are competing for schools and the schools are competing for students. If you strike out, you can just try again next year. I know a person in Psychology who got 70 rejections in one year. I know a person in Marketing who was told he didn’t place in the top 60 candidates at the 20th ranked school. The subsequent year, both people got hired by top 5 departments. One of them is ridiculously famous!

RUMORS
Don’t gossip. All gossip can mess with your chances. Gossip that you are doing well can hurt you because schools will be afraid to invite you if they think you won’t come. Gossip that you are doing poorly can hurt you because schools that like you will be afraid to invite you if they think no one else does. Sometimes people will ask a prof at your school if you would come to their school, and the prof will then ask you. To heck with that. Just say that if they want to talk to you, they should deal with you directly.

The danger of rumors can be summed up by the following story. At ACR in 2003, I was having a beer with someone who confessed, “you know, my friend X at school Y told me that they want to hire you, but they’re afraid your wife won’t move to Z”. I was single.

ADDENDUM
Have your own advice to add? Want more detail on specific parts of the process? Let me know. dan at dangoldstein dot com.

May 29, 2007

A new and different kind of journal

Filed in Gossip ,Research News ,SJDM
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APPLIED ECONOMICS RESEARCH BULLETIN

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Decision Science News looks with intrigue bordering on fascination at a new chimera called Applied Economics Research Bulletin.

Some of the unusual features:

Happy being a rest stop on the way to established journals – As they say “We expect that manuscripts published in the Applied Economics Research Bulletin will, in some cases, form the foundations for more refined works that will subsequently be submitted to other leading journals.”

Immediate dissemination – Papers can be published within days or even hours of submission

No manuscript style – Writers rejoice. Also nice for attracting interdisciplinary authors.

No Editor – Just article editors, no pukka sahib.

Non-commercial, open access – Web-based, no subscription fee, author keeps the copyright

Big names – The advisory board and associate editors list includes some very big names in economics and marketing.

Decision Science News’ nutshell:

Applied Economics Research Bulletin – It’s like SSRN meets peer review.