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January 13, 2005

Are the two birds in the bush a better choice than the one in your hand?

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SEPERATE NEURAL SYSTEMS VALUE IMMEDIATE AND DELAYED MONETARY REWARDS

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People seem to alternate between choosing to indulge in what is immediately available and choosing to decide based upon the knowledge that patience often wins in the long run. If you offer someone $10 today and $11 tomorrow, it’s likely they will choose the $10 today. But if you offer someone $10 in a year and $11 in a year and one day, they’ll probably choose the $11. The relative values of options may be discounted according to how long one expects to wait until payoff. To date little research has investigated the source of the tension between short-term and long-term preferences. A recent study in Science by Samuel McClure, David Laibson, George Loewenstein and Jonathan Cohen suggests that this discrepancy is due to the fact that two separate neural systems value immediate and delayed monetary rewards.

ABSTRACT:
“When humans are offered the choice between rewards available at different points in time, the relative values of the options are discounted according to their expected delays until delivery. Using functional magnetic resonance imaging, we examined the neural correlates of time discounting while subjects made a series of choices between monetary reward options that varied by delay to delivery. We demonstrate that two separate systems are involved in such decisions. Parts of the limbic system associated with the midbrain dopamine system, including paralimbic cortex, are preferentially activated by decisions involving immediately available rewards. In contrast, regions of the lateral prefrontal cortex and posterior parietal cortex are engaged uniformly by intertemporal choices irrespective of delay. Furthermore, the relative engagement of the two systems is directly associated with subjects’ choices, with greater relative fronto-parietal activity when subjects choose longer-term options.”

QUOTES:
“In Aesop’s classic fable, the ant and the grasshopper are used to illustrate two familiar, but disparate, approaches to human intertemporal decision making. The grasshopper luxuriates during a warm summer day, inattentive to the future. The ant, in contrast, stores food for the upcoming winter. Human decision makers seem to be torn between an impulse to act like the indulgent grasshopper and an awareness that the patient ant often gets ahead in the long run. This research is unified by the idea that consumers behave impatiently today but prefer/plan to act patiently in the future.”

“Impulsive preference reversals are believed to be indicative of disproportionate valuation of rewards available in the immediate future. Some authors have argued that such dynamic inconsistency in preference is driven by a single decision-making system that generates the temporal inconsistency, while other authors have argued that the inconsistency is driven by an interaction between two different decision-making systems. Specifically, we hypothesize that short-run impatience is driven by the limbic system, which responds preferentially to immediate rewards and is less sensitive to the value of future rewards, whereas long-run patience is mediated by the lateral prefrontal cortex and associated structures, which are able to evaluate trade-offs between abstract rewards, including rewards in the more distant future.”

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Brain regions that are preferentially activated for choices in which money is available immediately (Beta areas). (A) A random effects general linear model analysis revealed five regions that are significantly more activated by choices with immediate rewards, implying d 0 0 (at P G 0.001, uncorrected; five contiguous voxels). These regions include the ventral striatum (VStr), medial orbitofrontal cortex (MOFC), medial prefrontal cortex (MPFC), posterior cingulate cortex (PCC), and left posterior hippocampus (table S1). (B) Mean event-related time courses of Beta areas (dashed line indicates the time of choice; error bars are SEM; n 0 14 subjects). BOLD signal changes in the VStr, MOFC, MPFC, and PCC are all significantly greater when choices involve money available today (d 0 0, red traces) versus when the earliest choice can be obtained only after a 2week or 1-month delay (d 0 2 weeks and d 0 1 month, green and blue traces, respectively).

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Brain regions that are active while making choices independent of the delay (d) until the first available reward (delta areas). (A) A random effects general linear model analysis revealed eight regions that are uniformly activated by all decision epochs (at P Fig-3-Temporal-unequal-rewa.gif

Differences in brain activity while making easy versus difficult decisions separate delta areas associated with decision making from those associated with non-decision-related aspects of task performance. (A) Difficult decisions were defined as those for which the difference in dollar amounts was between 5% and 25%. (B) Response times (RT) were significantly longer for difficult choices than for easy choices (P fig-4-temporal-unequal-rewa.gif

Greater activity in delta than beta areas is associated with the choice of later larger rewards. To assess overall activity among beta and delta areas and to make appropriate comparisons, we first normalized the percent signal change (using a z-score correction) within each area and each subject, so that the contribution of each brain area was determined relative to its own range of signal variation. Normalized signal change scores were then averaged across areas and subjects separately for the beta and delta areas (as identified in Figs. 1 and 2). The average change scores are plotted for each system and each choice outcome. Relative activity in beta and delta brain regions correlates with subjects’ choices for decisions involving money available today. There was a significant interaction between area and choice (P Homepage.

David Laibson

Professor is a professor of Economics at Harvard University. He received his PhD in economics from the Massachusetts Institute of Technology in 1994. His Primary fields of interest are Macroeconomics (particularly consumption and savings), intertemporal choice, psychology and experimental economics.

David Laibson Homepage

George Loewenstein

George Loewenstein has been a professor at Carnegie Mellon University since 1990.
He received his PhD with distinction in economics from Yale University in 1985. “My primary research focus is on intertemporal choice–decisions involving trade-offs between costs and benefits occurring at different points in time. Because most decisions have consequences that are distributed over time, the applications of intertemporal choice are numerous (e.g. saving behavior, consumer choice, labor supply).” From George Loewenstein Homepage

Jonathan D. Cohen

Jonathan Cohen has joint appointments in Psychiatry in the Western Psychiatric Institute and Clinic at the University of Pittsburgh and Psychology at Carnegie Mellon University. He received his PhD in cognitive psychology from Carnegie Mellon University in 1990. “Research in my laboratory focuses on the neurobiological mechanisms underlying cognitive control, and their disturbance in psychiatric disorders such as schizophrenia and depression. Cognitive control is the ability to guide attention, thought and action in accord with goals or intentions. One of the fundamental mysteries of neuroscience is how this capacity for coordinated, purposeful behavior arises from the distributed activity of many billions of neurons in the brain.” From the Jonathan Cohen Homepage

December 20, 2004

Society for Consumer Psychology 2005 Winter Conference

Filed in Conferences
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SCP 2005 WINTER CONFERENCE

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The Upcoming Society for Consumer Psychology SCP winter conference will be held from Thursday February 24th to Monday the 28th 2005 at the TradeWinds Island Grand Resort in St. Pete Beach, Florida.

“The Society for Consumer Psychology represents the interests of behavioral scientists in the fields of psychology, marketing, advertising, communication, consumer behavior, and other related areas. Some members of the Society are mainly interested in generating applied knowledge to solve specific marketing related problems, while others focus on generating basic knowledge to contribute to theoretical and conceptual foundations of consumer psychology. The Society encourages all members to share their knowledge and contribute to the discipline of consumer psychology as a whole through contributions in conferences, journal articles, and book chapters”. -From the Society for Consumer Psychology Home Page

To register for the winter conference go to the SCP home page and click on “Winter 2005 SCP Conference Online Registration” or click here to link directly. A preliminary program for the SCP winter conference is availbale here or at the SCP home page.

Conference Chairs:

Anne Brumbaugh, Wake Forest University Home Page
Geraldine R. Henderson, Univerity of Texas at Austin Home Page

Conference Co Chairs:

Amar Cheema, Washington University in St. Louis Home Page
Scott A. Hawkins, University of Toronto Home Page
Joydeep Srivastava, University of Maryland Home Page

December 13, 2004

How can somebody make a decision without all the facts? Well, there’s actually no other way.

Filed in Books
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BOUNDED RATIONALITY: THE ADAPTIVE TOOLBOX by Gerd Gigerenzer and Rienhard Selten.

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How do real people make decisions in an uncertain world? In the book Bounded rationality: The adaptive tool box, Gigerenzer and Selten (et al.) investigate the constraints of limited information and time upon human logic and reasoning in the decision making process. The authors view Bounded Rationality neither as the optimization of limited resources under constraint nor as a study of the failings of human reasoning capability.

QUOTES:
“Visions of rationality do not respect disciplinary boundaries. Economics, psychology, animal biology, artificial intelligence, anthropology, and philosophy struggle with models of sound judgment, inference and decision making. These models evolve over time, just as the idea of rationality has a history, a present and a future (Daston 1988). Over the last centuries, models of rationality have changed when they conflicted with actual behavior, yet, at the same time, they provided prescriptions for behavior. This double role-to describe and prescribe- does not map easily onto a sharp divide between descriptive and normative models, which plays down the actual exchange between the psychological and the rational (Gigerenzer et al. 1989). Herbert Simon’s notion of bounded rationality was proposed in the mid-1950’s to connect, rather than to oppose, the rational and the psychological (Simon 1956). The aim of this book is to contribute to the process of coevolution, by inserting more psychology into rationality, and vice versa.”

“In a complex and uncertain world humans and animals make decisions under the constraints of limited knowledge, resources, and time. Yet models of rational decision making in economics, cognitive science, biology and other fields largely ignore these real constraints and instead assume agents with perfect information and unlimited time. About forty years ago Herbert Simon challenged this view with his notion of “bounded rationality”. Today, bounded rationality has become a fashionable term used for disparate views of reasoning.”

ABOUT THE AUTHORS:

Gerd Gigerenzer

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Gerd Gigerenzer is Director of the Center for Adaptive Behavior and Cognition at the Max Planck Institute for Human Development in Berlin and former Professor of Psychology at the University of Chicago. He won the AAAS Prize for the best article in the behavioral sciences.

Reinhard Selten

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Reinhard Selten received his PhD in mathematics at the University of Frankfurt am Main. Reinhard Selten is Fellow of the Econometric Society, President of the European Economic Association, a Honorary Member of the American Economic Association, a Member of the Nordrhein-Westfälische Akademie der Wissenschaften, and a Foreign Honorary Member of the American Academy of Arts and Sciences. He is also a Honora Patrona Komitato at Universala Esperanto Asocio. His main areas of interest are Game Theory and its applications as well as Experimental Economics and the Theory of Bounded Rationality. In 1994 he won the Nobel Memorial Prize in Economics, together with John C. Harsanyi and John F. Nash.

December 1, 2004

Is reading about the kettle the same as touching it?

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DECISIONS FROM EXPERIENCE AND THE EFECTS OF RARE EVENTS IN RISKY CHOICE

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Studies of risky choice almost always examaine decisions made from descriptive sources of information, for example pie charts and frequency distributions. Nonetheless, people in the real world usually make decisions without descriptions and rely on personal experience. The studies described here indicate a discrepancy in choice behavior concerning specific rare events. Why do decisions made from descriptions seem to overweight rare events and decisions made from experience seem to underweight them? A recent study by Ralph Hertwig, Greg Barron, Elke Weber and Ido Erev investigates how the manner of information acquisition, whether from a descriptive source or from personal experience, can dramatically influence choice behavior.

Abstract:
When people have access to information sources such as newspaper weather forecasts, drug-package inserts, and mutual-fund brochures, all of which provide convenient descriptions of risky prospects, they can make decisions from description. When people must decide whether to back up their computer’s hard drive, cross a busy street, or go out on a date, however, they typically do not have any summary description of the possible outcomes or their likelihoods. For such decisions, people can call only on their own encounters with such prospects, making decisions from experience. Decisions from experience and decisions from description can lead to dramatically different choice behavior. In the case of decisions from description, people make choices as if they overweight the probability of rare events, as described by prospect theory. We found that in the case of decisions from experience, in contrast, people make choices as if they underweight the probability of rare events, and we explored the impact of two possible causes of this underweighting-reliance on relatively small samples of information and overweighting of recently sampled information. We conclude with a call for two different theories of risky choice.

Quotes:
“Studies of human risky choice almost exclusively examine decisions from description. In a recent meta-analysis of all studies involving decisions between a two-outcome risky prospect and a sure thing (with equal expected value), Weber et al. (2004) found that all 226 choice situations called for decisions from description.”

“Respondents in the experience and description groups faced structurally identical problems. Yet their choices were dramatically different. Differences in choices were consistent with the assumption that in decisions from experience, rare events had less impact than they deserved on the basis of objective probability (and in decisions from description, rare events had more impact than they deserved). Moreover, the underweighting of rare events in decisions from experience appears to be robust across experimental paradigms:”

“Reliance on small samples of experience not only plays a key role in decisions from experience but also contributes to perception of the world as less variable than it actually is… Although small samples have the result that decision makers explicitly and hence presumably also implicitly underestimate the probability of rare events, underweighting of rare events is likely to emerge in decisions from experience even if people can provide accurate explicit estimates of the probabilities.”

“In decisions from experience, respondents need to update their impression of the options’ attractiveness by combining newly sampled outcomes with their knowledge from previous draws. Such updating can give rise to recency effects (e.g., Hogarth & Einhorn, 1992), that is, to judgments in which recently sampled outcomes receive greater weight than earlier sampled ones.”

“Not only probabilities and outcomes but many kinds of information can be learned through experience or description. Base rates, distributional information, and degrees of causal strength are a few examples. Thus, one might expect the way in which information is learned to influence cognitive processes in many domains. Indeed, in research on Bayesian reasoning, for instance, there is evidence that performance depends on whether base rates are directly experienced or symbolically described”

“In a study of foraging decisions made by bees, Real (1991) observed that “bumblebees under perceive rare events and over perceive common events” (p. 985), when the events are instances of food. To explain why bees’ “probability bias” diverges from that observed in humans, real cited, among other factors, the fact that bees’ samples from payoff distributions are truncated because of memory constraints.”

About the Authors:

Prof. Dr. Ralph Hertwig

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Ralph Hertwig is assistant Professor of applied Cognitive Science at the Institute for Psychology in the University of Basel. Hertwig has been a research scientist both in the Center for Adaptive Behavior and Cognition at the Max Planck Institute for Human Development in Berlin and at the MPI for Psychological research in Munich, Germany. In 1996 he Hertwig won the 1996 Heinz Heckhausen Young Scientist Prize of the German Society for Psychology. He recieved his PhD (Dr. rer soc.) Summa Cum Laude in Cognitive Psychology from The University of Konstanz in 1995.

Ralph Hertwig homepage

Greg Barron

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Greg Barron is an Assistant Professor in the Negotiations, Organizations, and Markets Unit at the Harvard Business School. He came to HBS in 2003 as the CLER (Computer Lab for Experimental Research) Research Fellow in Business Administration. Greg received his B.A. in Psychology from Haifa University and his Ph.D. in Behavioral Sciences from the Technion, Israel Institute of Technology. Prior to obtaining his Ph.D. he worked at Elbit Systems Ltd. as an HR coordinator and at the Carmel Center for Groups as a certified group facilitator. Greg’s primary research interests are in the field of decision making, focusing on the effects of economic incentives on repeated decisions.

Greg Barron Home Page

Elke Weber

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Elke Weber is a professor of psychology and Management at Columbia University. She recieved her PhD from Harvard University in 1984. Her research interests include Behavioral models of judgment and decision making under risk and uncertainty. She is also interested in psychologically appropriate ways to measure and model individual and cultural differences in risk taking, specifically in risky financial situations and environmental decision making and policy.

Elke Weber Home Page

Ido Erev

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Ido Erev is a member of the William Davidson Faculty of Industrial Engineering and Management as a professor at Technion, Haifa, Israel. His primary research interests are cognitive psychology, Individual decision making under uncertainty, human judgment and subjective probability, behavioral implications of game theory, social dilemmas and attention control.

Ido Erev Home page

November 15, 2004

Gordon Bower

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DECISION SCIENCE RESEARCHER PROFILE: GORDON BOWER

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Dr. Gordon Bower is considered one of the nation’s leading experimental psychologists and learning theorists. He did some of the earliest work investigating the effect of mood states on memory. In 1959 he received his PhD with distinction from Yale University. That same year Dr. Bower became a member of the psychology faculty at Stanford University and has remained there ever since. Both his research and his Chairmanship of the of the psychology department are in large part responsible for the establishment of Stanford University as a top rated research institution. In 1973, he was elected to the National Academy of Sciences. He served as Senior Scientist for the National Institute of Mental Health (NIMH) in 1993. During that time Dr. Bower co-chaired a panel of scientists gathered together from across the behavioral and social sciences to investigate the current state of mental-health knowledge in those fields. From that work came a guide to develop NIMH into the 21st century entitled Basic Behavioral Science Research for Mental Health: A National Investment. Dr. Bower has also served as president of The American Psychological Society and the Western Psychological Association, and as Senior Science Advisor to the American Psychological Association.

Currently, Dr. Bower is the A. R. Lang Professor of Psychology at Stanford University. Beyond his own research, he contributes to the strengthening of institutions that support scientists. Dr. Bower’s research on the role of emotions in learning has played a significant role in the current resurgence of interest by scientific researchers into the study of emotion.

Field of Expertise and Research Interests:
Conditioning, Learning, Memory, Language Comprehension, Mathematical Models, Computer Simulation of Memorial Processes, Behavior Modification

Academic Career:
1959-present Professor of Psychology at Stanford University

Selected Honors and Affiliations:
1993-Present Science Directorate American Psychological Association, Board of Scientific Advisors
1993-Present Elected Chief Scientific Advisor American Psychological Association, Board of Scientific Advisors
1993 Honorary Doctorate of Science Indiana State University
1992-1993 Senior Science Advisor National Institute of Mental Health, NIH
1991-1993 President American Psychological Society
1991 Honorary Doctorate of Humane Letters University of Chicago
1990-1991 President Western Psychological Association
1989-1990 President Elect Western Psychological Association
1989 President Society of Experimental Psychologists
1989 William James Fellow Award American Psychological Society
1987-1988 Elected Chairman of the Governing Board and President Cognitive Science Society
1983-1986 Associate Dean of Humanities and Sciences Stanford University
1978-1982
Chairman, Stanford University, Psychology Department
Research Advisor, National Institute of Mental Health, NIH
Research Advisor, American Psychological Association
Distinguished-Chair Professor, Stanford University, Psychology
Department
1973 Elected Member National Academy of Science
1959 to present Professor of Psychology at Stanford University

Education:
1959 Ph.D. (With Distinction) Psychology Yale University
1957 M.S. CT Psychology Yale University
1954-1955 Woodrow Wilson Fellowship Philosophy of Science University of Minnesota
1954 B.A. Western Reserve University

Quotes:
“I was sitting there all alone, waiting anxiously for the intruders to break in, when who should happen along but a colleague and former Yale graduate student roommate, Gordon Bower. Gordon had heard we were doing an experiment, and he came to see what was going on. I briefly described what we were up to, and Gordon asked me a very simple question: “Say, what’s the independent variable in this study?” -Philip G. Zimbardo after the Stanford Prison Experiment.

The following is from Emotion and Social Judgments Gordon H. Bower

“In 1976, while studying the impact of various emotional states on memory (Bower et al., 1978; Bower, 1981), I also became interested in mood effects on social judgment. Since the effects of mood on memory probably play a central role in biasing judgments, I will briefly tell you what we were learning from that research. We were finding two effects – one we called “mood-dependent retrieval,” and the other we called “mood-congruent processing”…

Mood-dependent retrieval refers to the idea that a person’s emotional state can become associated with ongoing events, so that the events and the emotion are stored in memory together. Later those memories can be best retrieved if the person returns to an emotional state similar to that experienced during the original event. Thus, when made happy, people should do better recalling events experienced earlier when they were happy. When sad, they should more easily recall events they experienced when they were sad…

It appears that mood-dependent retrieval is at work in a variety of learning and recall situations beyond working with word lists in a laboratory. For example, it applies to people’s recall of autobiographic events. When asked to recall an unselected sample of autobiographic events from their recent past, people will retrieve a biased set of events that agrees with their emotional state during recall…

The second phenomenon (Bower, 1981; 1983) we called mood-congruent processing, which means that a person’s mood can sensitize the person to take in mainly information that agrees with that mood. Material that is congruent with the mood becomes salient so that the person attends to it more deeply than to other material. The person thinks about that material more deeply and associates it more richly with other information (an activity we call associative elaboration). The result is that the person learns this material better than non-mood-congruent material. Thus, when happy, people will attend and respond more to pleasant than unpleasant pars of their environment and learn more about them; when sad, they’ll attend and respond more to its unpleasant than to its pleasant parts and learn more about them…

There’s a mood-congruent advantage: people who were happy during the initial experience learn the happy events better; angry people learn anger-provoking events better; and sad people learn sad events better… Although these results illustrate mood-congruent learning under laboratory-induced moods, available evidence suggests that such selective learning also happens with naturally occurring variations in everyday moods (Mayer et al., in press).”

Gordon Bower CV

November 9, 2004

Irrational or just wary?

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EXPLAINING PURPORTEDLY IRRATIONAL BEHAVIOR BY MODELING SKEPTICISM IN TASK PARAMETERS:

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Numerous psychological articles have claimed to demonstrate human “irrationality,” but Craig R. M. McKenzie, John T. Wixted, and David C. Noelle suggest that these studies have made one crucial assumption. When subjects demonstrate behavior (predictable or unpredictable), researchers believe that the subjects believe the assumptions or parameters underlying the purported normative response. Hence unpredictable behavior would be due to irrationality on the part of the subject. McKenzie et al. argue that people are in fact quite rational in such circumstances as exhibiting unpredictable behavior; they simply don’t trust what people in lab coats tell them. Accounting for participant doubt concerning the legitimacy of explicit key task parameters from the start of an experiment is more effective than trying to convince subjects that what they are being told is true.

Abstract:
“Many purported demonstrations of irrational behavior rely on the assumption that participants believe key task parameters that are merely asserted by experimenters. For example, previous researchers have found that participants who first reported confidence in items presented in a yes–no format did not change confidence to the degree prescribed by the normative model when those same items were later presented in a forced-choice format. A crucial assumption, however, was that participants fully believed the assertion that the forced-choice items were mutually exclusive and exhaustive. In this article, the authors derive and test a new normative model in which it is not assumed that participants fully believe the assertion. Two visual identification experiments show that the new normative model provides a compelling account of participants’ confidence reports.”

Complete article

Quotes:
“In essence, all information is imperfectly reliable, and information provided to participants by experimenters is no exception. Indeed, experimenter-provided information might be less trustworthy than most. Participants are often deceived in psychology experiments, and they are aware of this.”

“In many tasks, participants’ behavior is compared to a normative standard, and differences between behavior and the normative response are routinely interpreted as errors … If participants do not fully believe key task parameters, which are often merely asserted by experimenters, then calling their responses ‘errors’ would be misleading.”

“The idea that participants may not fully believe key task parameters is not one that is generally taken into consideration in experiments designed to assess whether participants behave in a normative manner. Often, researchers arrive at the conclusion that participants do not behave normatively, just as McKenzie et al. (2001) did. Not only does our proposed approach make salient various assumptions experimenters might otherwise take for granted, but it also highlights the fact that there are often multiple normatively defensible responses to a given situation.”

“We mention just one more example. Ross, Lepper, and Hubbard (1975) presented participants with pairs of suicide notes, one of which was said to be authentic and one of which was said to be inauthentic. Participants were to judge which note was authentic for a series of such pairs and, after each judgment, received feedback. All participants received predetermined (i.e., false) feedback, indicating either that most of their judgments were correct or that most were incorrect … Note the participants’ quandary after being told they had been deceived (“Were they lying to me then, or are they lying to me now?”), and any skepticism about what the experimenter said about the false feedback leads to results that the authors consider irrational … The initial debriefing was also part of the experiment, and participants were deceived then, too. It was only during the final debriefing that participants were told the true purpose of the experiment. Maybe the only irrational thing to do in any experiment is to fully believe anything the experimenter tells you.”

“We believe it is best to accept participant skepticism as an important—and tractable—variable in laboratory experiments, especially those that compare behavior to a normative standard. The success of the trust model in the present context shows that it is both desirable and feasible to develop normative models in which it is not assumed that participants believe key assumptions that are often taken for granted by experimenters.”

About the Authors:

David C. Noelle

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Currently David C. Noelle is assistant professor of computer science and assistant professor of psychology at Vanderbilt University. He is also working as a postdoctoral researcher at the Center for the Neural Basis of Cognition. He received his PhD in Cognitive Science and Computer Science from the University of California, San Diego (UCSD) in 1997. His research interests include artificial intelligence, machine learning, and cognitive modeling using connectionist techniques. He is also interested in modeling “high level” cognitive processes using “low level” artificial neural network models. Noelle’s current research is focused on connectionist models of rule guided behavior and learning from direct instruction.

David C. Noelle home page

Craig R. M. McKenzie

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Craig R. M. McKenzie is an associate professor at the University of California, San Diego. He received his Ph.D. in Psychology from The University of Chicago in 1994. McKenzie is a cognitive psychologist interested in inference, uncertainty, and choice. Most of His recent research explains errors people purportedly make in the laboratory by (a) adopting a different (usually Bayesian) normative approach to the task of interest and (b) taking into account the typical structure of the environment. “I often find that “errors” are the result of people behaving as (qualitative) Bayesians who make reasonable assumptions about task parameters that reflect how the world usually works.” He doesn’t claim that people never make mistakes, only that people’s behavior is much richer, more interesting — and often more rational — than usually depicted in the judgment-and-decision-making literature.

Craig R. M. McKenzie home page

John T. Wixted

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Presently John T. Wixted is professor & chair of the Department of Psychology at The University of California at San Diego. He earned his Ph.D. in clinical psychology from Emory University in 1987. His research interests mainly involve signal-detection models of recognition memory and the psychology and neuroscience of forgetting, but “I maintain a connection to my clinical background by teaching Abnormal Psychology on a regular basis”.

John T. Wixted home page

October 4, 2004

Nonhuman primates discovered to have a sense of fairness

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MONKEYS REJECT UNEQUAL PAY

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A juvenile capuchin monkey exhibits cheek-to-cheek begging to an eating adult male, cupping his hand next to the adult’s food in solicitation. This primate is exceptionally tolerant and readily shares food, which may be a precondition for the reported reactions to reward division.

Humans judge fairness according to both the distribution of gains and possible alternative outcomes. There may be species-specific responses concerning the way one ought to be treated in a society and how gains should be distributed. For example, species with highly developed food sharing and cooperation, such as the Capuchin monkeys, may have emotionally-charged predispositions for various expectations about how gains should be distributed. A recent study in Nature by Sarah F. Brosnan and Frans B. M. de Waal examines the responses of 5 female capuchin monkeys to an unequal distribution of gains during experimental exchange with a human experimenter. Females were paired and observed under four exchange conditions: 1) both females received the same reward, 2) one female received a superior reward, 3) one female received a superior reward without exchange (i.e., no work), and 4) a single female observed a superior reward in the absence of a partner.

Monkeys too, it seems, respond negatively to an unequal distribution of gains. They will respond negatively to a previously acceptable gain if their partner receives a better one. Clearly if these emotions evolved in humans to aid in long-term human cooperation, they may exist in other species as well.

“In preliminary studies, two conditions were used: equality, in which two monkeys exchanged tokens with a human experimenter to receive cucumber, and inequality, in which one monkey exchanged for cucumber and its partner for grape, a more favoured food. Whereas in previous tests males and females had been equally reliable exchangers, only females reacted differently to the two conditions. Compared with equality tests, females receiving the less favoured reward in inequality tests were less willing to exchange, whereas males showed no such effect. Our limited sample size did not allow a conclusive comparison of the sexes, but independent evidence indicates that capuchin females pay closer attention than males to the value of exchanged goods and services.”

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Percentage of failures to exchange for females across the four test types. Black bars (RR) represent the proportion of non-exchanges due to refusals to accept the reward; white bars (NT) represent those due to refusals to return the token. Lines indicate significant differences between conditions (Tukey’s multiple comparisons). ET, equality test; IT, inequality test; EC, effort control; FC, food control.

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Mean percentage of failures to exchange in the first 15 trials (black bars) versus the last 10 trials per test (white bars). Lines at top indicate significant differences.

Quotes:
“During the evolution of cooperation it may have become critical for individuals to compare their own efforts and pay-offs with those of others. Negative reactions may occur when expectations are violated. One theory proposes that aversion to inequity can explain human cooperation within the bounds of the rational choice model, and may in fact be more inclusive than previous explanations. Although there exists substantial cultural variation in its particulars, this ‘sense of fairness’ is probably a human universal that has been shown to prevail in a wide variety of circumstances. However, we are not the only cooperative animals, hence inequity aversion may not be uniquely human. Many highly cooperative nonhuman species seem guided by a set of expectations about the outcome of cooperation and the division of resources.”

“Failure to hand back a received token (NT) is a highly unusual response in our trained capuchins: in two years of bartering, such failures occurred in less than 5%of trials, as also seen in the equality test. The marked increase in failure to exchange in individuals receiving the lower-value reward in the inequality test and the two control conditions cannot be explained by the absence of positive reinforcement, as rewards continued to be cucumber, an accepted reward in the equality test. Even more curious than a drop in the conditioned response rate was the second manner in which exchanges failed: refusal to accept or consume the reward (RR). In doing so, subjects forfeited a directly accessible food that they readily accept and consume under almost any other set of circumstances.”

“One possible explanation is that reward rejections relate to violated expectations, in which monkeys forego a low-value reward if a high-value one is anticipated. On the basis of her own reward history, however, there would seem no reason for a subject receiving cucumber to expect anything else during the same test.”

“Capuchin monkeys, too, seem to measure reward in relative terms, comparing their own rewards with those available, and their own efforts with those of others.”

“As opposed to primates marked by despotic hierarchies, tolerant species with well-developed food sharing and cooperation, such as capuchins may hold emotionally charged expectations about reward distribution and social exchange that lead them to dislike inequity.”

About the authors:

Dr. Frans B. M. de Waal;

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Currently, Frans B.M. de Waal is the Charles Howard Candler Professor of Psychology and Director of the Living Links Center at the Yerkes National Primate Center, both at Emory University. Born in 1948, in the Netherlands he was trained as a zoologist and ethnologist in the European tradition at three Dutch universities Nijmegen, Groningen, Utrecht), resulting in a Ph.D. in biology from the University of Utrecht, in 1977. His dissertation research concerned aggressive behavior and alliance formation in macaques. In 1975, a six- year project was initiated on the world’s largest captive colony of chimpanzees at the Arnhem Zoo. Apart from a large number of scientific papers, this work found its way to the general public with Chimpanzee Politics (Johns Hopkins University Press, 1982).

Frans B.M. de Waal homepage

Dr. Sarah F. Brosnan

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Currently Dr. Brosnan is a postdoctoral fellow in the department of anthropology at Emory University. Her primary interests are the evolution of social behavior and social cognition, particularly the cognitive processes underlying cooperation and reciprocity and economic behavior. Specifically, what interest her is the proximate mechanisms underlying such behaviors, particularly how animals perceive the value of different commodities in their reciprocal interactions (i.e., goods and services exchanged within a biological market) and how the social environment affects the acquisition and use of such a concept of value. Currently she is working on a number of different projects in both humans and nonhuman primates (particularly chimpanzees) in an effort to understand more about the evolution of cooperative and economic behavior across the primate lineage.

Sarah F. Brosnan homepage

October 3, 2004

Employment opportunities in decision science

Filed in Jobs
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I. MIAMI UNIVERSITY – Miami, Florida.

Miami University, Assistant Professor in the area of Judgment and Decision-making. The Department of Psychology at Miami University invites applications for a tenure-track position, to begin August 2005, at the assistant professor level in judgment and decision-making. Successful candidates will show promise for conducting outstanding research, mentoring doctoral students, and providing high-quality teaching and research supervision at the undergraduate level. Our department offers doctoral programs in Brain and Cognitive, Social, and Clinical Psychology. We anticipate moving into a new spacious, and well-equipped building in 2006. Applicants must have completed the Ph.D. by August 2005. Applicants should submit curriculum vitae, reprints or preprints, research and teaching statements, and three letters of reference supporting both research and teaching excellence to: Robin Thomas, Chair, JDM Search Committee, Department of Psychology, Miami University, Oxford, OH, 45056, FAX (513) 529-2420 (www.muohio.edu/psychology). Review of applications will begin November 1, 2004, but applications will be accepted until the position is filled. Miami University is an Equal35 Opportunity /Affirmative Action employer, applications from women and minorities are especially encouraged.

II. MASSACHUSETS INSTITUTE OF TECHNOLOGY – Cambridge, Massachusets

The Management Science area at the MIT Sloan School has three faculty openings in the areas of Operations Management, Operations Research and System Dynamics. We are primarily looking for people at the level of Assistant or untenured Associate Professor. Applicants are expected to have a strong methodological research base, the potential for research and teaching excellence, and an ability to contribute to application areas of high impact. At least one of the appointments will be in the area of applied probability, stochastic processes and their applications. We particularly want to identify qualified female and minority candidates for consideration in these positions.

The OM/OR/SD Groups support MBA, PhD, BS, and Executive education programs. We have a broad range of well-supported research programs, including the MIT Operations Research Center, the Leaders for Manufacturing Program, the Integrated Supply Chain Management Program, the Center for Innovation on Product Development, the Entrepreneurship Center, and the Center for eBusiness@MIT.

Information about the Alfred P. Sloan School of Management can be found at: http://mitsloan.mit.edu

Applicants should possess a PhD in a relevant field by the date of appointment. Applicants must submit hard copies of the following: an up-to-date curriculum vitae, copies of representative publications, a statement of their objectives and aspirations in research and education, an official graduate transcript, information about teaching interests, experience and performance, and at least three letters of recommendation by December 15, 2004.

Please send applications to: Chair, OM/OR/SD Faculty Search Committee (indicate your primary field of interest), c/o Ms. S. Nemat-Nasser, MIT Sloan School, 50 Memorial Drive E53-360, Cambridge, MA 02142-1347.

MIT is an equal opportunity employer committed to building a culturally diverse and pluralistic intellectual community and strongly encourages applications from women and minorities.

-John Sterman
Jay W. Forrester Professor of Management
Director, MIT System Dynamics Group
MIT Sloan School of Management
E53-351
30 Wadsworth Street
Cambridge, MA 02142
617/253-1951 (voice); 617/258-7579 (fax), jsterman@mit.edu
http://web.mit.edu/jsterman/www

III. UNIVERSITY OF CALIFORNIA-BERKELEY – Berkeley, California

Pending budgetary approval, the Department of Economics is seeking applicants for a tenure track opening at the assistant professor level or an opening at the associate or full professor levels with tenure, at 100% time for academic year 2005-06. The field is open.

Qualifications for the tenure track opening include: a Ph.D. in Economics or a related discipline, at or near completion; the potential for significant research accomplishment and for distinguished teaching at both the undergraduate and graduate levels. Applicants must send a resume, one research paper, and arrange for submission of three letters of recommendation. Qualifications for the tenured opening include outstanding research accomplishment and the capacity for distinguished teaching at both the undergraduate and graduate levels. Applicants must send a resume and the names of three references.

Please refer your referees to the University’s statement on confidentiality, found at http://www.chance.berkeley.edu/apo/evalltr.html. The application deadline is December 7, 2004. Applications submitted after the deadline will not be considered.

MIT is an equal opportunity- affirmative action employer.

CONTACT: Personnel Committee/Recruitment (for tenure-track applicants) or Maurice Obstfeld (for tenured applicants), Department of Economics, 549 Evans Hall #3880, University of California-Berkeley, Berkeley, CA 94720-3880.

IV. CORNELL UNIVERSITY – Ithaca, New York

As seen in the 17 September issue of Science:

THE NEW LIFE SCIENCES INITIATIVE at Cornell University

CORNELL UNIVERSITY HAS ANNOUNCED A $600-MILLION INITIATIVE to recruit faculty and provide resources that foster the multidisciplinary study of organisms in the post-genomics era. This faculty-driven effort serves to integrate the life sciences with Cornell’s outstanding programs in the physical, engineering, and computational sciences through 13 interconnected, campus-wide focus areas composing The New Life Sciences Initiative. Having begun in 1998 and extending through the next five years, Cornell is in the process of making 110 professorial appointments, establishing a new graduate fellowship program, creating new research core facilities, and building several major capital projects. Active faculty searches are listed on the next three pages. For more information, please visit our websites: http://www.genomics.cornell.edu/, http://lifesciences.cornell.edu/about/initiative.php, and http://vivo.library.cornell.edu.

Neuroscience
Cornell University invites applications for three junior faculty positions in neuroscience that use:
(1) Genomic/genetic, developmental, molecular, computational, and/or biophysical approaches to the study of excitable cells or tissues (contact David Lin at dml45@cornell.edu for more information);
(2) Cell and/or developmental approaches to study the functional organization of the nervous system; for this position, we especially seek individuals with expertise in murine model systems that will contribute to a university-wide interdisciplinary mouse program (contact Tony Bretscher at apb5@cornell.edu for more information); and
(3) Integrative approaches to CNS function with interests that could include, but are not limited to, the organization of sensory or motor systems; social behavior, social communication, social cognition; emotion or any other aspect of cognition such as learning and memory at the network level, spatial navigation, or decision-making; a variety of current recording or imaging techniques would be welcome (contact Barbara Finlay at blf2@cornell.edu for more information).

Search for more jobs:
American Economic Association
CareerBuilder.com
The Economist Classifieds
PhDs.org
ScienceCareers.org

September 30, 2004

Upcoming Decision Science Conference

Filed in Conferences
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SOCIETY FOR JUDGEMENT AND DECISION MAKING 2004 ANNUAL CONFERENCE 25TH ANNIVERSARY EDITION

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The 25th Annual Conference of the Society for Judgment and Decision Making will be held November 19th to the 22th 2004 at the Millennium Hotel Minneapolis in Minneapolis, Minnesota.

The Society for Judgment and Decision Making is an interdisciplinary academic organization dedicated to the study of normative, descriptive, and prescriptive theories of decision. Its members include psychologists, economists, organizational researchers, decision analysts, and other decision researchers. The Society’s primary event is its Annual Meeting at which Society members present their research.

The registration form for the 2004 annual meeting is now available! Go to the Society for Judgment and Decision Making Home page and please print out the form. Then mail it to the address given to register. And to members, don’t forget to pay your annual dues. You can read the 2004 annual meeting program (PDF format) and a list of posters with abstracts (Excel format). Another listing can be found in the September 2004 SJDM Newsletter.

The Organization Comitte is:
Eric Johnson, President (ejj3@columbia.edu)
Joshua Klayman, Past President (joshk@uchicago.edu)
Maya Bar-Hillel, President-Elect (msmaya@math.huji.ac.il)
Bud Fennema, Secretary-Treasurer (bfennema@garnet.acns.fsu.edu)
Alan Schwartz, Webmaster (alansz@sjdm.org)
Warren Thorngate, Newsletter Editor (warrent@ccs.carleton.ca)
Richard Coughlan, Conference Coordinator (rcoughla@richmond.edu)
Craig Fox, Program Committee Chair (craig.fox@anderson.ucla.edu)

This meeting will be held just after the Brunswik Society 20th Annual International Meeting and the Psychonomic Society Annual Meeting.

September 27, 2004

Daniel Kahneman

Filed in Profiles
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DECISION SCIENCE RESEARCHER PROFILE: DANIEL KAHNEMAN WINNER OF THE 2002 NOBEL PRIZE IN ECONOMIC SCIENCES

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Currently, Daniel Kahneman is both the Eugene Higgins Professor of Psychology and professor of public affairs in the Woodrow Wilson School of Public and International Affairs at Princeton University and a fellow at The Hebrew University in Jerusalem. He is a pioneer and theorist in human judgment and decision-making research. He is known for his collaboration with Amos Tversky in establishing a cognitive basis for common human reasoning using heuristics, and in developing Prospect Theory and other pivotal theories. Kahneman received his B.Sc. in Mathematics and Psychology from The Hebrew University in Jerusalem in 1954, and his Ph.D. in Psychology from the University of California, Berkeley in 1961.

Recent Academic History:
*Former professor of psychology at The University of California, Berkeley
*Fellow at The Canadian Institute for Advanced Research
*Former professor of psychology at The University of British Columbia
*Fellow at The Center for Advanced Study in the Behavioral Sciences
*Former professor at The Hebrew University in Jerusalem
*Member of The American Academy of Arts and Sciences
*Member of The National Academy of Sciences
*Fellow of The American Psychological Association
*Fellow of The American Psychological Society
*Fellow of The Society of Experimental Psychologists
*Fellow of The Econometric Society

Awards:
*The Distinguished Scientific Contribution Award of the American Psychological Association
*The Warren Medal of the Society of Experimental Psychologists
*The Hilgard Award for Career Contributions to General Psychology
*The winner of the 2002 Bank of Sweden Prize in Economic Sciences in Memory of Alfred Nobel

Quotes:
“In one experience I remember vividly, there was a rich range of shades. It must have been late 1941 or early 1942. Jews were required to wear the Star of David and to obey a 6 p.m. curfew. I had gone to play with a Christian friend and had stayed too late. I turned my brown sweater inside out to walk the few blocks home. As I was walking down an empty street, I saw a German soldier approaching. He was wearing the black uniform that I had been told to fear more than others – the one worn by specially recruited SS soldiers. As I came closer to him, trying to walk fast, I noticed that he was looking at me intently. Then he beckoned me over, picked me up, and hugged me. I was terrified that he would notice the star inside my sweater. He was speaking to me with great emotion, in German. When he put me down, he opened his wallet, showed me a picture of a boy, and gave me some money. I went home more certain than ever that my mother was right: people were endlessly complicated and interesting.”

“A framing effect is demonstrated by constructing two transparently equivalent versions of a given problem, which nevertheless yield predictably different choices. The standard example of a framing problem, which was developed quite early, is the ‘lives saved, lives lost’ question, which offers a choice between two public-health programs proposed to deal with an epidemic that is threatening 600 lives: one program will save 200 lives, the other has a 1/3 chance of saving all 600 lives and a 2/3 chance of saving none. In this version, people prefer the program that will save 200 lives for sure. In the second version, one program will result in 400 deaths, the other has a 2/3 chance of 600 deaths and a 1/3 chance of no deaths. In this formulation most people prefer the gamble. If the same respondents are given the two problems on separate occasions, many give incompatible responses. When confronted with their inconsistency, people are quite embarrassed. They are also quite helpless to resolve the inconsistency, because there are no moral intuitions to guide a choice between different sizes of a surviving population.”

“The focus of my research for the past fifteen years has been the study of various aspects of experienced utility – the measure of the utility of outcomes as people actually live them. The concept of utility in which I am interested was the one that Bentham and Edgeworth had in mind. However, experienced utility largely disappeared from economic discourse in the twentieth century, in favor of a notion that I call decision utility, which is inferred from choices and used to explain choices. The distinction could be of little relevance for fully rational agents, who presumably maximize experienced utility as well as decision utility. But if rationality cannot be assumed, the quality of consequences becomes worth measuring and the maximization of experienced utility becomes a testable proposition.”

“Although behavioral economics has enjoyed much more rapid progress and gained more respectability in economics than appeared possible fifteen years ago, it is still a minority approach and its influence on most fields of economics is negligible. Many economists believe that it is a passing fad, and some hope that it will be. The future may prove them right. But many bright young economists are now betting their careers on the expectation that the current trend will last. And such expectations have a way of being self-fulfilling.”

Selected Books:
*Choices, Values and Frames by Daniel Kahneman and Amos Tversky

*Judgment under Uncertainty: Heuristics and Biases by Daniel Kahneman, Paul Slovic, Amos Tversky

*Well-Being: Foundations of Hedonic Psychology by Daniel Kahneman, Edward Diener, Norbert Schwarz

Read More:
Daniel Kahneman Curriculum Vitae

Daniel Kahneman Autobiography at Nobelprize.org .

Daniel Kahneman’s Prize Lecture