Decision Science News

A recent article in The Journal of Economic Perspectives by Justin Wolfers and Eric Zitzewitz describes how a new kind of market for prediction and forecasting delivers surprisingly accurate results in a variety of domains.

Here, we see predicted versus actual movie opening takes, based on data from the Hollywood Stock Exchange.

Exerpt from article:

These insights suggest that some prediction markets will work better when they concern events that are widely discussed, since trading on such events will have higher entertainment value and there will be more information on whose interpretation traders can disagree. Ambiguous public information may be better in motivating trade than private information, especially if the private information is concentrated, since a cadre of highly informed traders can easily drive out the partly informed, repressing trade to the point that the market barely exists. Indeed, attempts to set up markets on topics where insiders are likely to possess substantial information advantages have typically failed.

Reference:

Wolfers, J. & Zitzewitz, E. Prediction Markets. The Journal of Economic Perspectives, 18(2),107-126

20TH ANNUAL INTERNATIONAL MEETING OF THE BRUNSWIK SOCIETY

The 20th Annual International Meeting of the Brunswik Society will be held on Thursday and Friday, November 18-19, 2004 in Minneapolis, MN, at the Millennium Hotel. The program begins at 1:30 on Thursday afternoon. We invite proposals for papers on your recent research and panel discussions on any theoretical or empirical/applied topic related to Egon Brunswik’s philosophy and paradigm.

Please send a brief abstract (50 words), and indicate whether the paper/discussion is theoretical or empirical, to Jim Holzworth by Friday,July 16th. Kindly respect this submission due date.

The organizing committee is:
Jim Holzworth holz@uconn.edu
Mandeep K. Dhami mkdhami@uvic.ca
Elise Weaver eweaver@wpi.edu
Tom Stewart t.stewart@albany.edu

The meeting is held concurrently with the Psychonomic Society Annual Meeting and just before The Society for Judgment and Decision Making meeting. More details about the 12 2004 meeting, including registration instructions, will be posted on the Brunswik Society website, http://brunswik.org.

DECISION SCIENCE RESEARCHER PROFILE: ROBYN DAWES

Recent Career:
1997-Present The Charles J. Queenan, Jr. University Professor, Carnegie Mellon University.
1995-1996 Acting Head, Dept. of Social & Decision Sciences, Carnegie Mellon University
1994 Fellow, Center for Rationality & Interactive Decision Making, Hebrew University of Jerusalem,
1992-Present University Professor, Carnegie Mellon University (CMU)
1990-Present Professor of Psychology, Department of Social & Decision Sciences, CMU

Selected Books Published
* Rational Choice in an Uncertain World
* House of Cards

Quotes:
“My current research spans five areas: intuitive expertise, human cooperation, retrospective memory, methodology and United States AIDS policy. […] I write journal articles and books because I believe the information they contain could be valuable — at least on a “perhaps, maybe” basis. I have never written anything with the expectation that it will sell, or become a ‘”citation classic” (although one of my articles has). I believe that in American culture we are obsessed with outcomes rather than with behaving in ways that tend to bring about the best expected outcomes, while “time and chance” play a very important role. […] Some of my clinical colleagues claim that feelings are not understood until they can be put into words. My own view is that every translation of a feeling, thought, idea or mathematical form into words involves at least a small element of automatic distortion, often a much larger element.

“We observe more human cooperation than can be readily inferred from a game theoretic analysis that assumes people are = selfish. I have long been dubious that we can “rescue” this analysis by extending it to include “side payments” (e.g. reciprocal altruism, concern with reputation, utility for acting in accord with a socially instilled conscience, benefit to those genetically related.”

An interview with Dawes

Home page at CMU
Continue reading Robyn Dawes

Will decision making styles figure into who the US chooses as a president? This question is taken up in a recent Wall Street Journal article:

For those without WSJ access, an exerpt:

[While they differ on issues, t]here is also a big difference in their decision-making styles. Mr. Bush often makes quick judgments. Mr. Kerry likes to immerse himself in detail, read extensively and consult a wide circle of advisers before making a decision.

Mr. Bush paints in black and white, Mr. Kerry in shades of gray. Mr. Bush establishes broad principles and sticks to them. Mr. Kerry is willing to tack with changing conditions.

WHAT IS THE ENCYCLOPEDIA?

Decision Science News draws upon theory and method from a range of social and behavioral science disciplines such as economics, psychology, political science, marketing, management, and beyond. The Encyclopedia entries we present here offer a reference containing information on terms, theories, people and concepts within these fields. By providing this easily-accessible resource, we hope to encourage and facilitate interdisciplinary understanding.

Decision Theory: Decision theory is a body of knowledge and related analytical techniques of different degrees of formality designed to help a decision maker choose among a set of alternatives in light of their possible consequences. Decision theory can apply to conditions of certainty, risk, or uncertainty. More…

ANNOUNCEMENT FROM THE AMERICAN MARKETING ASSOCIATION SUMMER EDUCATORS’ CONFERENCE

Dear Colleagues,

On behalf of the AMA Academic Council (the leadership group of the AMA Academic Division), I want to take this opportunity to welcome you to the home page for the 2004 AMA Summer Marketing Educators’ Conference, which is taking place August 6-9 at the Boston Marriott Copley Place.

Conference co-chairs Ken Bernhardt, Jim Boles, and Pam Ellen, all of Georgia State University, along with an outstanding group of track chairs, have assembled a program that can only be described as truly superb. The theme of the conference is “Enhancing Knowledge Development in Marketing,” and this theme is well-supported by the sessions within the program.

In particular, a number of special sessions feature multiple perspectives from practitioners, academicians, and policy makers, focusing on issues that are the subject of contemporary debate and research in marketing. For example, in an opening session one firm, VIA, will discuss how they practice integrated brand building. Another session features a panel of industry experts examining the topic of marketing metrics to reinforce what we are finding from our own research and teaching—marketing performance does indeed matter and the use of such performance metrics is becoming increasingly important.

On the customer side, several sessions will address the issues of customer loyalty and customer relationship management (CRM). Another session focuses on the important subject of privacy from three different perspectives: industry, academia, and public policy making.

Overall, the conference offers programming that is of strong interest to marketers across a wide spectrum of specializations. As you peruse the program, you will immediately notice the richness of topics and impressive array of scholars representing both the paper and panel sessions. A variety of SIG-sponsored sessions add great value to the program by promoting opportunities for networking with colleagues who share similar interests.

After reviewing the program that Ken, Jim, Pam, and the track chairs have assembled, I’m sure you will agree that the 2004 Summer Educators’ Conference is a high value-adding event for marketing academicians. I hope you will join us in Boston.

Best Wishes,
Greg W. Marshall, President
AMA Academic Division

For more information see http://ecommerce.ama.org/summered/
Continue reading AMA Summer Educators’ Conference

ASSOCIATION FOR CONSUMER RESEARCH ANNUAL CONFERENCE OCTOBER 7-10, 2004 IN PORTLAND, OREGON

The Association for Consumer Research announces a call for papers for its Annual Conference to be held October 7-10, 2004, at the Hilton Portland and Executive Tower in Portland, Oregon, USA. Portland is situated at the confluence of the Columbia and Willamette rivers and the conference hotel is located in the downtown area, nine miles from PDX airport. The city center is served by excellent public transportation. The brand new Portland Streetcar and the clean MAX Light Rail share the streets with cars, bicyclists and the occasional tourist. Both stop within 2-3 short blocks from the hotel.

Portland has a cornucopia of attractions. It is a magnet for world-class chefs who revel in creating menus of salads of fresh-picked arugula and chervil, spiked with hazelnuts and local cheeses, and entrees of alder-smoked salmon, Dungeness crab, razor clams and morel mushrooms. Naturally, seafood is just the start of Portland’s citywide menu, which features more than 40 different types of cuisine. To accompany your meal, there is Oregon wine (the Pinot Noir is among the finest in the world) or one of the handcrafted beers that places Portland at the center of America’s craft-brewing movement. Between meals, head to Powell’s City of Books, the world’s largest independent English language bookstore. Grab a map of the bookstore to help you navigate through the sea of books that spans three floors of an entire city block. The Portland area is home to an unrivaled number of open spaces and boasts an incredible range in size, from the 5,000-acre Forest Park (America’s largest urban wilderness) to tiny 24-inch Mill Ends Park. An easy way to see those parks is on two wheels. Bicycling magazine recently ranked Portland the United States’ top cycling city two years running. You can also get an early start on the ski season at Mt. Hood, a short drive from Portland. Mt. Hood boasts the longest ski season in the US at 345 days a year. Further, you can marvel at the natural wonders of the Columbia River Gorge, only a 45-minute drive from Portland.

Conference Objectives

The 2004 Conference will provide a forum for the presentation and discussion of original, theoretically rigorous research on consumers and consumption. In addition, the conference co-chairs, Geeta Menon and Akshay Rao, wish to enhance the visibility of the consumer behavior discipline through the presentation of rigorous research on topics of contemporary interest. For instance, the coincidence of the conference with the U.S. Presidential election season provides an opportunity for the presentation of research on a variety of issues related to the consumption of political candidates and ideology, as well as other aspects of political choice such as voter apathy, the influence of the media on voter informedness, and the like. Similarly, rigorous research on issues of consumer welfare in the public policy domain is particularly encouraged.

Program Structure

As in the recent past, there will be four main forums for the presentation and discussion of research and scholarly thought:

Special Topic Sessions provide opportunities for focused attention on cutting-edge and important topics. Successful sessions offer a coherent perspective on emerging substantive, theoretical, or methodological issues.

Competitive Paper Sessions include papers that represent the completed work of their authors. The program co-chairs assign accepted papers to Conference sessions that reflect similar scholarly interests.

Working Paper Track: Participants typically present preliminary findings from the early stages of a research program. Authors distribute their papers and display their findings poster-style in a plenary session.

Roundtables: Encourage intensive participant discussion of consumer research topics and issues.

Film Festival: As in the previous few years, short films related to consumer behavior and consumption will be shown throughout the conference. Please check the Call for Entries here [or as a downloadable MSWord file here].

Submission deadlines for ACR 2004 have passed.

ANNUAL MEETING OF THE SOCIETY FOR JUDGMENT AND DECISION MAKING
CALL FOR ABSTRACTS

The Society for Judgment and Decision Making (SJDM) invites abstracts for symposia, oral presentations, and posters on any theoretical, empirical, or applied topic related to judgment and decision making. Completed manuscripts are not required.

LOCATION, DATES, AND PROGRAM
SJDM’s silver anniversary conference will be held at the Millennium Hotel in Minneapolis MN, November 20-22, 2004. We’ve added a full day (Saturday) to the schedule to make room for more presentations and for two excellent keynote speakers:

• Malcolm Gladwell, science writer for The New Yorker and author of The Tipping Point: How Little Things Can Make a Big Difference (Little, Brown and Company).
• Robert Zajonc, Professor of Psychology, Stanford University, and author of many path-breaking articles on the cognitive, affective, and social determinants of behavior.

SUBMISSIONS
The deadline for submissions is July 15, 2004.
Submissions for symposia, oral presentations, and posters should be made through the SJDM website at http://sql.sjdm.org. Technical questions can be addressed to the webmaster, Alan Schwartz, at www@sjdm.org. All other questions can be addressed to the chair of the program committee, Craig Fox, at craig.fox@anderson.ucla.edu.

ELIGIBILITY
At least one author of each presentation must be a member of SJDM. Joining at the time of submission will satisfy this requirement. A membership form may be downloaded from the SJDM website at http://www.sjdm.org. An individual may give only one talk (podium presentation) and present only one poster, but may be a co-author on multiple talks and/or posters.

AWARDS

• The Hillel Einhorn New Investigator Award is given for the best paper by a graduate student or recent PhD. It is awarded in even years, including 2004. Materials should be submitted by July 15, 2004 to Professor Rick Larrick, Fuqua School of Business, Duke University, Box 90120, Durham, NC 27708. For eligibility criteria and submission details, see the announcement in the upcoming June newsletter.
• The Best Student Poster Award is given for the best poster presentation whose first author is a student member of SJDM.
• The Jane Beattie Travel Memorial Scholarship subsidizes travel to the United States for scholarly pursuits related to JDM research, including attendance of the annual meeting.
  Further details regarding these awards are available at http://www.sjdm.org.

PROGRAM COMMITTE
Craig Fox (Chair), Dan Ariely, Rachel Croson, Mike DeKay, Julie Irwin, Jennifer Lerner, Ellen Peters, and Alex Wearing.

Eric Johnson and Dan Goldstein have published an investigation of the effect of policy defaults on organ donation in the journal Science [Download]. Defaults determine whether a citizen is in the organ donor pool unless they choose not to be (an “opt out” system, as in some European countries) or is not in the organ donor pool unless they choose to be (an “opt in” system as, in the United States). Looking at real-world data from a variety of European countries in addition to experimental data, it is found that most people stick with the default category they are assigned to.

Across European countries the opt out countries have drastically higher proportions of the population in the potential organ donor pool: a difference of 60 percentage points minimum.

Does the size of the donor pools matter? Johnson and Goldstein find that opt out countries are home to more organ transplantation, and presumably lives saved. This is supported by a regression analysis that controls for religion, educational level, and medical infrastructure.