SOCIETY for JUDGMENT and DECISION MAKING NEWSLETTER Vol XV Number 2 June, 1996
NOMINATIONS FOR THE JDM BOARD
Please take some time and make nominations for the Executive
Board of the Society. The nominations ballot is on page 4 of the
Newsletter. A self-mailer is included for easy mailing. The
deadline for receipt of ballots is AUGUST 9, 1996.
DIRECTORY
The JDM Society's 1996 Directory is being mailed with this
issue of the newsletter. Please check your entry for accuracy. If
any corrections are needed, use the form on page 11 of the
Newsletter.
From the Editor. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 2
From the Board . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 3
1995 Presidential Address. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 3
Nominations for J/DM Executive Board Members . . . . . 4
On-Line. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 6
Meeting Notice . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 8
Positions available. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 9
Upcoming Meetings. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .10
Call for Papers. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .10
Dues and Journal Subscriptions . . . . . . . . . . . .11
JDM Presidents . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .12
1996 EXECUTIVE BOARD
Barbara Mellers, President
Hal R. Arkes, President-Elect
Terry Connolly, Past President
Robyn M. Dawes, 1994-1996
Lola Lopes, 1995-1997
Elke Weber, 1996-1998
Irwin P. Levin, Secretary/Treasurer
Editor:
Shawn P. Curley
Department of Info. & Decision Sciences
University of Minnesota
271 19th Avenue S.
Minneapolis, MN 55455
(612) 624-6546
FAX: (612) 626-1316
E-Mail: scurley@csom.umn.edu
Dues, Addresses & Corrections:
Irwin P. Levin
Department of Psychology
University of Iowa
Iowa City, IA 52242
(319) 335-2451
E-Mail: irwin-levin@uiowa.edu
The J/DM Newsletter welcomes submissions from individuals and groups. However, we do not publish substantive papers. Book reviews will be published. If you are interested in reviewing books and related materials, please write to the editor.
There are few ground rules for submissions. The best way to send your contribution is via EMAIL or in an ASCII file on a 3.5" or 5.25" diskette. If you must send hard-copy (e.g., if you are using special graphics or do not have computer access), please submit camera-ready copy. This means that the copy should be typed single-spaced on white 8« by 11 paper. If possible, use a carbon or film ribbon. Please mail flat -- do not fold.
Advertising Rates: Advertising can be submitted to the editor. Inclusion of the ad and the space given to the ad is at the editor's discretion. The current charge is $75 per page to cover production and mailing costs. Contact Shawn Curley for details. Alternatively, you can use--
Mailing Labels: Some readers may wish to send reprint lists or other material to people listed in the directory. The current charge is $100 for a set of labels. Contact Irwin Levin for details.
Address corrections: Please check your mailing label carefully. Because the J/DM Newsletter is usually sent by bulk mail, copies with incorrect addresses or which are otherwise undeliverable are neither forwarded nor returned. Therefore, we have no way of knowing if copies are delivered. Address changes or corrections should be sent to Irwin Levin.
Subscriptions: Subscriptions are available on a calendar year basis only. Requests for information concerning membership in the Society for Judgment and Decision Making should be sent to Irwin Levin.
Foreign Air Mail: Newsletters to non-US addresses are normally sent as printed matter air mail. For an additional $10 per year, non-US subscribers can have the newsletters sent letter class air mail. To obtain this service, contact Irwin Levin or include $10 and a note with your next dues payment.
Lobbying Efforts
Some years ago, the Judgment and Decision Making Society decided to join the Federation to help ensure funding in the behavioral and social sciences. We currently pay the Federation $10 per regular US member (i.e., not including students and non- US members) for lobbying efforts. Federation dues are now going up to $11 per regular US member, an amount that is more than half of our annual society dues ($20)! For some time, a number of JDM members have been voicing their concerns about the Federation and discussing alternative uses for our lobbying dollars. Because of these concerns and the recent increase in Federation dues, the JDM Board has been exploring other possibilities. One idea that we have had is to support the lobbying efforts of APS, a group that is currently not a member of the Federation, rather than supporting the Federation, at least on a trial basis. The Board supports this idea of switching to APS and paying a reduced rate. We would like to hear your views on this subject.
Unfortunately, we do not feel we can give brief summaries of the pros and cons of these alternatives because the issues are rather complex. If you are interested, we will send you materials from both the Federation and APS. Please send requests for information and/or your opinions about lobbying to Shawn Curley, Editor of the Newsletter (addresses on p. 2), and he will forward them to the JDM Board. We look forward to hearing from you!
Earlier this year the Editor asked me to write a short version of my remarks at the 1995 JDM Meeting for inclusion in the Newsletter. This seemed to me at the time an excellent idea- -who would decline a professional pulpit unhassled by referees?-- but it has come to seem less and less possible as the months and false starts have accumulated. The ideas, originally organized for oral and visual presentation, simply would not compress into a linear, written exposition in any reasonable length. My topic, "Decision Maps," was an effort to encourage the use of descriptive schemes richer than (or, at least, different from) the predominant decision tree and lens model. Unfortunately, an essay arguing for new maps requires extensive (and, in print, expensive!) use of graphics, not simply descriptions of graphics, to be effective. The Newsletter doesn't seem like the appropriate vehicle for such an essay.
In bare outline, the presentation reviewed some of the under-exploited descriptive mappings we have available, and to point out some of their advantages. Among the alternatives I touched on were Image Theory; value hierarchies and networks; influence diagrams; causal models; cognitive maps and schemas; feedback dynamic models; and my own efforts in decision cycles and causal structures. If anyone would like copies of the transparencies and notes for the presentation, I would be happy to provide them. They do not constitute a coherent, well- organized argument, let alone a formal paper, but they might provide a memory aid for anyone interested in developing these ideas themselves.
I would like to reiterate here the thrust of my remarks: my appreciation to the members of the Society for asking me to serve as President. The Society comprises most of my intellectual friends, as well as many of my personal friends, and I have felt privileged and honored to serve on its Board for the past several years.
Terry Connolly
Past President, 1995-1996
Please take a few minutes to think about suitable candidates for these positions and send in your nominations. Your participation in this process is very important. To make it easier, a self- mailer is on the next page. So, fill in your ballot, fold it over, and then please seal, stamp, and mail it.
The Society bylaws provide for election of two officers each year: the President-Elect (who thereafter becomes President, then Past President, and then leaves the Board); and one member of the Executive Board (who serves for three years, and then rotates off). The first step in the process is the nomination of candidates for these posts. This is the task of the membership, i.e., YOU. The election ballot will be mailed in the September issue of the Newsletter.
Please take a moment to think of people that you would like to see leading our Society. You may nominate up to FIVE for the Board, up to TWO for President-Elect. Note that ex-Presidents are not eligible for reelection as President, though they may serve as Board members. (For your information, a list of the society's presidents is on page 12 of this newsletter.) Any Presidential nominations ineligible by this rule will be counted as Board nominations. Please do nominate at least a few candidates--quite modest numbers of nominations have put candidates on the ballot in past years. Also, if you made a nomination at the last annual meeting of the society (November, 1995), please do not renominate these individuals; their nominations have been recorded.
Irwin Levin
Secretary/Treasurer
Nominate up to FIVE people as candidates for the Executive Board:
Nominate up to TWO people as candidates for President- Elect:
Return your nominations to:
(You can use the self-mailer on the back of this page)
J/DM Nominations
c/o Irwin Levin
Department of Psychology
University of Iowa
Iowa City, IA 52242
or send by e-mail:
irwin-levin@uiowa.edu
NOMINATIONS MUST BE RECEIVED BY August 9, 1996
We welcome suggestions and comments about new features.---- Alan Schwartz and Alan Cooke
Electronic Mailing Lists (more information is in the Newsletter,
July 1994)
To subscribe, send a message of the form:
subscribe mailing-list YOUR FULL NAME to the following address:
listproc@mellers1.psych.berkeley.edu
where mailing-list is
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To send a message to all subscribers (including graduate students), send the message to:
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To cancel your subscription, send a message to the same address as for subscriptions of the form:
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Reference Archive (more information is in the Newsletter,
February 1995)
The system allows users to store and retrieve book and chapter
references related to the fields of judgment and decision making.
The archive is located at:
references@mellers1.psych.berkeley.edu
For more information send the message "help" to this address.
World-Wide Web
The J/DM Society now has a set of pages on the World-Wide
Web, providing information about the Society and Society
Membership, upcoming events, all our electronic services
(including easy-to-use forms for subscribing to SJDM mailing
lists, and help with the reference archive), and links to related
Web sites that may be of interest to members. The URL
(uniform resource locator) for the Web page is:
http://mellers1.psych.berkeley.edu/sjdm
Internet Subject Cooperative (more information is in the
Newsletter, July 1994)
This service allows researchers to fill out each other's
questionnaires and surveys, for pilot studies or real data. Contact
Jon Baron, the moderator of the effort
baron@cattell.psych.upenn.edu
Federation News
The monthly newsletter of the Federation of Behavioral,
Psychological and Cognitive Sciences is available electronically.
Contact the Federation at:
federation@apa.org
Manuscript Archive
Many people have suggested that the Society maintain a list of working papers and/or tech reports. This allows people to contact researchers working on similar problems without having to wait until the relevant papers are published. It is now possible to do this through the SJDM Reference Archive.
By "manuscript", we mean any paper not currently published. So working papers, tech reports and the like are all "manuscripts." Published books, book chapters, and journal articles are NOT manuscripts. In the event of publication of a manuscript in the archive, please let us know when and where the paper was published, so that we can update the archive.
To submit a manuscript reference to the archive, follow the normal procedure: Send mail to:
references@mellers1.psych.berkeley.edu
The first line of the body should say submit manuscript. The same data fields are used except that the title field is now "Title_manuscript:" Contact information (your address) is required for manuscript submissions.
To get help on submitting manuscripts and an example submission, send e-mail to the above address having the following message:
help submit manuscript
The addition of manuscript capabilities does not alter how you search the archive for references. The command "search author Jabberwocky" would find all references having "Jabberwocky" in any author field, regardless of whether they are books, chapters, or manuscripts. If you want, you can restrict your searches to only manuscripts by adding "AND Reference_type manuscript" to the end of all your search strings.
WWW Interface to the Reference Archive
Many people find using the e-mail interface to the reference archive slow and tedious. We have now installed forms at the Society World-Wide-Web site that allow users to search the archive and submit references directly through their browser. They are located in the Reference Archive section of the Electronic Services page at the Society website (http://mellers1.psych.berkeley.edu/sjdm). Each form explains its use. The WWW interface makes dealing with the archive much easier. Try it out!
Society Newsletters On-line
The SJDM newsletters are now available on-line and through email. If you would like to receive text-only versions of the newsletter via e-mail, subscribe to the "jdm-newsletter" mailing list. Send mail to:
listproc@mellers1.psych.berkeley.edu
The message should say:
subscribe jdm-newsletter YOUR FULL NAME
You must be a member of the society in good standing to subscribe to this mailing list. If you would like to view the Society newsletters on the World-Wide-Web, they are located on the Electronic Services page of the SJDM website. These can be printed and searched using your web browser. In order to access the newsletters on the web, you must have a username and password. On your first visit to the site, go to the "registrar." You will be asked a question that requires the current SJDM membership directory to answer. Once you have successfully answered this question, you will be asked to provide a username and password. This username and password will be used to access members-only documents at the site on this and all subsequent visits.
SJDM Directory On-line
The SJDM directory is also available at the Society website. It lists address, phone, and e-mail addresses for Society members, and is accessible only to Society members. It also has links to members' home pages, and will in the future provide lists of research interests. You can use your web browser to search for particular members or affiliations. We hope that you find these services useful. As always, we welcome your comments and suggestions.
Alan Cooke <acooke@garnet.berkeley.edu>
Alan Schwartz <alansz@cogsci.berkeley.edu>
Meeting announcement for
FUR VIII, 8th International Conference on the Foundations &
Applications of Utility, Risk and Decision Theory
Mons (Belgium)
July 2-5, 1997
Secretariat of the conference:
Diana Raulier, FUR Conference, FUCAM
Chauss,e de Binche, 151
B-7000 MONS BELGIUM
Tel +32 65 32 32 17
Fax +32 65 31 56 91
raulier@message.fucam.ac.be
Abstract deadline: October 1, 1996
COGNITIVE PSYCHOLOGIST: The Department of Psychology at the UNIVERSITY OF SOUTH CAROLINA invites applications for a full-time position in cognitive psychology with a nine month salary range of 34-36K. This is a non-tenure track three semester appointment beginning in January 1997 (an August 1996 start date is possible). We are especially interested in a cognitive psychologist with a specialty area that is consistent with the scientific mission of the department. These areas include: attention, judgment/decision making, language, memory, modeling, reading. Responsibilities include teaching 3 courses per semester. These will include some combination of undergraduate courses in the areas of introductory psychology, perception, learning, cognition, research methods, statistics, and graduate level courses in cognitive psychology. Candidates whose major area is cognitive psychology, but who have a multidisciplinary approach with a developmental or neuroscience emphasis are also encouraged to apply. Applicants should submit a curriculum vitae, a statement of research and teaching interests, preprints and reprints, and arrange for three letters of recommendation to be sent to: Cognitive Search Committee, Department of Psychology, University of South Carolina, Columbia, SC 29208.
TWO RESEARCH ASSISTANTS, Psychologists and/or Economists: to work from October 1st 1996 on a three-year project funded by the Leverhulme Trust which will study in depth The Anatomy of Decision Making Under Risk and Over Time. All major areas of human activity involve weighing the risks of possible gains and losses and balancing present interests against possible future consequences. However, there is now much evidence suggesting that people do not always handle such decisions according to conventional principles of rationality, but may follow different principles and/or be vulnerable to a variety of biases, errors and inconsistencies. Using a range of novel experimental and questionnaire/survey methods, this project will try to uncover the thinking and motivation behind the observed behaviour in order to develop a better understanding of individual and group decision processes, and provide a sounder basis for public policy in important areas such as health and safety.
The successful applicants for these posts are most likely to have a background in psychology or economics, and must be willing to learn from (and contribute to) disciplines besides the one in which they have primarily been trained. They can expect to be involved in all aspects of the work--helping to design experiments and questionnaires, running experiments and conducting individual/small group interviews, analysing quantitative and qualitative data, writing up the results for publication in academic or professional journals, and disseminating the findings in any other appropriate forms--e.g. through conference and seminar presentations to academic and policymaker audiences.
Able and committed researchers can reasonably expect that in the course of this project they will broaden their existing range of skills, extend their contacts with the international research community and considerably enhance their CVs. Applicants should be qualified at least to Masters degree level or equivalent. Starting salary will be up to Point 6 on the RA1A Scale (currently 16,307 pounds per annum, pending pay settlement) depending on age and qualifications. For further information, please contact Professor Graham Loomes, Centre for the Analysis of Safety Policy and Attitudes to Risk (CASPAR), Dept of Economics, University of Newcastle, Newcastle NE1 7RU, or e-mail <Graham.Loomes@ncl.ac.uk>
Cognitive Science Society: will be at the University of
California, San Diego, La Jolla, CA, July 12-15, 1996. For
information contact: Edwin Hutchins
<hutchins@cogsci.ucsd.edu> or Walter Savitch
<savitch@cogsci.ucsd.edu> or check
<http://www.cse.ucsd.edu/events/cogsci96/>.
International Symposium on the Analytic Hierarchy Process: will be at Simon Fraser University in Vancouver, Canada, July 13-15, 1996. For information contact: William C. Wedley, ISAHP IV Chairperson, Faculty of Business Administration, Simon Fraser University, Burnaby B.C., CANADA, V5A 1S6, (604) 291-4528, fax: (604) 291-4920, <wedley@sfu.ca>.
Society for Mathematical Psychology: will be at the University of North Carolina at Chapel Hill, August 1-4, 1996. For information contact: Colleen R. Schwoerke, Division of Continuing Education, CB 1020 Friday Center, University of North Carolina, Chapel Hill, NC 27599-1020 USA, (919) 962- 6298, fax: (919) 962-2061, <smp96@cs.unc.edu>, <http://www.socsci.uci.edu/smp/>.
European Mathematical Psychology: will be at the Xanadu hotel in Padua, Italy, September 16-20, 1996. For information contact: Cristante Francesca; Dipartimento di Psicologia Generale; Via Venezia, 8; 35131 Padova ITALY.
Society for Medical Decision Making: will be at Westin Harbour Castle, Toronto, Canada, October 13-16, 1996. For information contact: Elizabeth Paine; Society for Medical Decision Making; The George Washington University; Office of CME; 2300 K Street, NW; Washington, DC 20037 USA; (202) 994-8929.
Society for Computers in Psychology: will be at the Hyatt Regency Hotel, Chicago, IL, October 31, 1996. For information contact: John H. Krantz, Department of Psychology, Hanover College, P.O. Box 108, Hanover, IN, 47243 USA. (812) 866- 7307, fax: (812) 866-7114, <krantzj@hanover.edu>
The Psychonomic Society: will be at the Hyatt Regency Hotel, Chicago, IL, November 1-3, 1996. For information contact: Roger L. Mellgren, Secretary-Treasurer, Dept of Psych, Box 19528, Univ of Texas, Arlington TX 76019-0528 USA, (817) 272-2775, fax: (817) 272-2364, <mellgren@uta.edu>
Judgment/Decision Making Society: will be at the Hyatt Regency Hotel, Chicago, IL, November 2-4, 1996. The abstract deadline is July 5, 1996. See the March 1996 issue of the JDM Newsletter for more information. Program and registration information will appear in the September 1996 issue.
Risk Decision and Policy
The journal takes focuses on applications of decision theory (very broadly defined) and game theory to policy problems of interest to government or business. In addition to the usual collection of technical papers, each issue has a symposium with contributions from different disciplines. The first three symposia cover the environment, public health and insurance with contributions from game theory, health education management, law, statistics, economics and, of course, psychology. I am happy to send fliers to anyone who emails me on <panand@ox.vax.ac.uk>. Submissions should be sent to: Paul Anand, Wolfson College, Oxford OX2 6UD UK.
You can now pay your membership dues and order the journals Organizational Behavior and Human Decision Processes and the Journal of Behavioral Decision Making using the single form below. If you want to subscribe to either journal for 1996, just check the appropriate space(s) below. Do NOT send your journal fees, you will be billed for the amount by the publishers. Please DO send your Society membership dues.
For your dues status, please check your label. The date next to your name is the last year for which the database shows you as having paid dues.
If your label shows "1996" or later, you are fully paid.
THANK YOU!
If it is "1995" then you owe dues of $20 for 1996.
If it is "1994" or earlier then you owe back dues ($20 per
year) and $20 for 1996. Please act soon, or you
will be dropped from the mailing list.
Members residing outside the United States who incur expenses in getting checks written in U.S. funds have the privilege of paying in advance for multiple years. The label date should indicate if you have done this. Members residing in countries where getting checks written in U.S. funds is impractical or illegal may apply to the Society for a free membership. Such members will find a "*" next to their names on the label.
Name Phone
Address EMAIL
City State ZIP
1996 Dues: Member $20 Student $5*
Please make checks payable to the JUDGMENT/DECISION MAKING SOCIETY. Checks must be in US dollars and payable through a US bank. Mail the form and check to:
Irwin Levin
Department of Psychology
University of Iowa
Iowa City, IA 52242
*Students must have endorsement of a faculty member:
Faculty Signature: Date:
Printed Name: Institution:
I wish to subscribe to the following for 1996: [The journal will bill you later for the price of subscription at the special Society rates shown]
_____ Organizational Behavior and Human Decision Processes (12 issues, $144 US & Canada, $170 elsewhere)
_____ Journal of Behavioral Decision Making (4 issues, $75)
Society for Judgment and Decision Making
James C. Shanteau 1986-1987 Kenneth R. Hammond 1987-1988 Robyn M. Dawes 1988-1989 Lola L. Lopes 1989-1990 Baruch Fischhoff 1990-1991 Robin M. Hogarth 1991-1992 Daniel Kahneman 1992-1993 J. Frank Yates 1993-1994 Terry Connolly 1994-1995 Barbara Mellers 1995-1996 Hal R. Arkes 1996-1997
J/DM NEWSLETTER
Department of Information & Decision Sciences
Carlson School of Management
University of Minnesota
271 19th Avenue S.
Minneapolis, MN 55455